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My comment on the comments are this
Excluding Poker Stars does not mean excluding the worlds largest players pool since New Jersey residents can only play against each other
Coming to the USA and pleading not guilty just to enter the US Market is a crap shoot at best
Coming to the USA and pleading guilty just to enter the US Market is always a terrible idea.
Remember you can lead a horse to water but a donkey will always follow you to the river
Frankly I cant see why I have to know how much money a big name pro like Phil Ivey or Tom Dwan of Viktor Blom are winning and losing and high tables either online or at casinos that is between them there families and there financiers.
I also dont see what benefit it has for fans poker to know whose getting rich and whos going broke.
Do it for the fans, do we really get that much pleasure what there is in watching Mike Matusow or Erick Lindgren go busto. Come on Mikey go broke for us, if thats what we want then were not good fans were just a bunch of sickos
And the poker community really needs to take a hard look in the mirror
Because its grown so ugly
To size this one up it will be Pappas vs Eggert vs Freeman vs the anti poker crowd( or as I like to put it 1 for 2 on the fence and 3 against I guess that is what we call fair and balanced) which is not suprising given that make up of the Republican dominated House, plus this is a Republican dominated committee and I dont believe the issue of poker legalization on online poker legalization crosses party lines as much as poker players would like to believe.
Still it should provide voting poker players some valuable information on how to play there hands in the next election.
There is a big difference between a bill to study online gaming and bill legalizing online gaming especially one that is much better than the most recent misguided bill proposed by state rep Tina Davis
Still even if we pass a bill similar to New Jersey while it could raise revenues and hopefully produce high paying jobs the benefits will still be relatively marginal
One overlooked reason why gaming revenues have leveled off in the state is due to the economy and the lack of high paying jobs.
There are not alot of people who can afford spend $100 on a cash game or tournament on a weekly basis, plus most of the tournaments are overpriced charging 3 or 4 dollars a minute per blind round.
Example: Tournament with a buy in of $60 + $20(entrance fee) the blinds are 20 minutes per round($80.00/20 minutes blinds= $4.00 per minute)
and thats not counting the antes that kick in at level 5
To remedy this casinos should could lower the price on tournaments to $1.00 per round which is not going to happen
The state could offer a subsidy with a cap of $1000 per year to players through the casinos based on income levels much like that Affordable Care Act therefore lowering the price of tournaments for lower income players in which a portion of the subsidies would be recouped in the form of tax revenue on winnings.
Finally the state could pass a living wage act, if were to raise the mininum wage from $7.25 and hour to $12.50 hour people would have more disposable income which would be spent at both the poker tables, the restraunts and casino shopping outlet producing both a boom in both gaming revenue and sales.
As for online poker even if we able to go back to the pre Dark Friday days online poker would face the same challenges and limited due to economic reality and it will only be a matter of time before we see online gaming revenues level off in New Jersey
He did not turn down a non prosecution agreement it was pulled out from under him because Eric Holders Justice Department thought they had a better witness which I thought was double dealing
To Quote Inspector Morse "Think Lewis Think"
To respond to Panterras observations the wording on the bad actor clause is somewhat vague and subject to interpretation and a straightfoward view would be this applies to UB/Absolute Poker and Calvin Ayers, however a broader interpretation would not only refer to Stars/Tilt/Revolution/Merge but could also refer to Party/Pacific/Mansion/Microgaming who also had to settle with the US Government but also the players who were compensated by those sites and possible anyone who would be part of the Full Tilt Repayment Remissions process or anyone like myself played on those sites regardless of whether of the amount of money desposited in those sites.
So what the legislative intent is will be determined on what is needed to get this on the President desk for signature so we got a long and difficult road ahead
Thats a 7% drop from last year or 93% of last years field if this trend continues the turnout to this year Mainevent around 6131 players as opposed to 6598 in 2012 which would mean will have 467 less players from 2012 as opposed to 267 less player from 2011 which is drop of 150%
As a result of Black Friday, the Federal Budget sequester, state government cuts in aid to both poor and middleclass families, a possible Debt Ceiling Debacle and No Online Poker Legislation, while it will be no Zombie Apocalypse attendence will continue drop all the way out to 2017.
Here is how I forcast the drop by percentage in the future years over each previous years number.
2014 125% Drop
2015 112% Drop
2016 106% Drop
2017 103% Drop
Here's a brain teaser with this forcasting formula what would be the predicted turn out for the 2017 WSOP Main Event?
Alls well that End well I guess assuming Stars gets past the regulatory snags they got save buy a Judge who kept them from buying a 70 million dollar liability known as the Atlantic Club so alls wells that ends well for online poker players but lets not forget about the workers who work at the Atlantic Club casino who may lose there jobs while their employers take the money and run
I might also want to add that most importantly the economy and the future political crisis in Washington DC will also weigh heavly on attendence for the WSOP Main Event and could have a serious negative impact on both the World Series of Pokers future as well as the US poker community
I have decided just for fun to list the attendance for each WSOP Main Event from 2010 foward and provide what I think will be the attendance for the Main Event this year
Here is the last 3 years
Year Turnout Decline in Turnout the Following Year
2010 7319 454
2011 6865 267
2012 6598 175%
And now 2013 Main Event
This is a forecasted drop of 467 players from last or a decline of 175%
While it is no Zombie Apocalypse it does show a continued drop off as a result of Black Friday and unless the Full Tilt remissions process goes foward and a national online poker bill is signed the future drop in attendence for the Main Event will continue
He is the projected formula I am using for years out to 2017
(467 x 150%) and so on
If you use the above formula you should be figure out my predicted decrease attendence figures for the next 4 years following and it is as bad as Chained CP
I have mixed emotions about what happened to Greg Raymer, one he was clearly set up, look no one did more for the poker boom in the early with the exception of Phil Gordon than Greg Raymer, no on did more for online poker, or for that matter the World Series of Poker, in fact Greg Raymer recommended that every should try winning the main event long before it became less about the money of the bracelet and more about being a once in a lifetime experience US poker players did but he didnt. He stayed to fight the good fight and supported the Heartland Poker giving local and regional poker a boost something many poker pros today are too good for.
Still there is something that tells me he should have know better, his personal judgement seems to be as skewed as his political judgment that sometimes confuses libertarianism with conversativism one favors less government and more personal freedoms while the other believes that government should be a moral police that serves the will of political control freaks.
Sure Greg Raymer was a trailblazer in the early days of the poker boom as much as Chad of Chads Beer Reviews was considered be a trailblazer in the early days of the Craft Beer Boom and both are liberitarians who lean in the conservative direction.
But both seemed a little offputting to many of there peers and both seems to begrudge that fact they let the prospective worlds be it poker of craft beer pass them by.
And while we think Greg Raymers staying in the US and giving support to the Heartland Poker Tour after the Epic Poker Debacle that was the Epic Poker League is admirable one cannot help but wonder with his 4 victories in one seasons was he really helping the Heartland Poker Tour or any other regional circut or was he playing way below his skill level in order to pickup some easy money playing against people he could easy beat
And while I dont expect poker players like Raymer to be role models on you are a Spokesperson for the game to should make judgements that make sense or people will have a right to ask questions as in this case
The take away from this is as a poker player you should know when a situation scream ITS A TRAP or you end up be busted
Miss Davis obviously didnt talk talk to poker players when she came up with her idea for online poker legslation
First only big international corporations would be able to afford afford the $10 million application fee.
The bill excludes companies like Pokerstars-Fulltilt, Bwin-Party, 888-Pacific Poker and the bill would not only prevent local gypsy poker leagues like Riverchasers from enter the online poker, but could also lead to there shutdown hurting players and the local establishment like bars and restraunts that host them (Riverchaser is a live free to play poker league)
Second the 20% taxes virtually(get it) eliminates any profitablity and guarentees that players would lose money
Segway into the problem gambling clause of the law which says if you dont make money fast you banned
Also there is no liquidity without interstate or international play, no tournament poker which is the most poker players are today and forget Stud, Draw or Pot Limit Omaha as well
Then here is the kicker what have to protect our casinos and our money from competion.
Face it outside of Parx, we dont have any casinos there all internationally owned so what are you proctecting. You have no developed online platform so who is going to develope this and pay the 10 million dollar application fee. And isnt capitalism about compitetion.
In its current state this bill is even worse than the Federal Bill it will generate no revenue for the state it's a hot air balloon without any air
This bill needs to go back to the drawing board
As for Representative Paul Clymer, he to make everything illegal which we wouldn't take seriously if it were not for the the that the Republican Governnor wants to take 2 billion dollars out of education and put it in to incarceration and the Repulican state legislature might go along.
Which is why the poker community must stay vigilant and work to change these state governments like Pennsylvania in the 2014 election where I intend to use my poker skills
Online Poker - Bad Actor Clauses
The only thing these bad actor clauses guarentee is that no currently existing online poker room in existance will be allowed to enter the US Market.
I dont know where these online poker rooms are going to spring from since no casino even has a developed online poker software that is ready for testing and where is the money or who is going to spend the money to develope the platform.
Image if we applied this standard to high speed rail, wait we just might do just that and wait for GM, Chrysler, Ford or GE to do just that. Which would raise the question why havent they done by now.
Easy answer private enterprise doesnt develope technology platform the government sector does.
Either this is just another way of saying yes but meaning no or these people are really naive about infrastructure issues in America.
Without Pokerstars, Fulltilt, BwinPartyPoker, 888Pacific Poker or Government money online poker just wont happen plain and simple and all this legislation is, is nothing more than lip service to the Poker Community
The American Gaming Associations attempts to keep Pokerstars and Fulltilt Poker out of the US market is harmful both the Poker Community, the Gaming Industry, the Financial Industry and the business world in general
It shows how the American Gaming Association in arrogantly thinking about itself ignores and brand centric pulblic
Pokerstars built its brand with the American Public through advertising and providing a product that the poker community has come to know and love.
The American Gaming Association has no software gaming platform, no brand name, no marketing campaign and if and when they ever do do they really think that the poker community fall head over heels for an unknown quantity.
If they hadnt developed a gaming platform by now what makes they will do so in the immediate future especially with there own money.
As for Pokerstars this gaming super giant was not built on deceit on chicanery they were built into a monopoly or worse a holding due to bad government polices both in the US and in countries like France and Italy.
They are the only company about to enter any market including the US Market without asking for a government handout which is more than I could say US casino that wants to enter the online without a fully developed platform.
And if Pokerstars gets locked of the US Market they will be just fine, they will just seek to monopolize the European, Latin American and Asian Markets and the American Gaming Association will find itself lock out of the Rest of the World Market due to a trade war that they helped contribute to and the real losers will be the rest of us.
Its nice to hear from our conservative antil poker friends, as for conversative donors not wanting a foreign company buying their way into the US is market, may thats because they've been subsidizing foreign companies into the US Market during the Bush era all in the name of privitization of governments services.
Lets face it all online gaming companies are from foreign countries since their inception, only Full Titl Poker and Ultimate Bet were created in the US and we all know how they turned out
Conservatives dont want any online poker period and they pine for the days when Stud poker was banned because it was considered a game of chance not a game of skill but that's an arguement for another day
Perhaps our conservative will get what he wants and Govenor Christie will veto the Online Poker Bill, Pokerstars wont buy the Atlantic Casino, The gaming industry will start to go broke with on Casino toppling after another as a result of lower turnouts in poker tournaments and given that half of all poker players are involve in the stock market (a comforting thought)
the Financial Industry will go into another crisis but this time Congress will refuse to bail them out
Conservatives have a good thing going deny our financial industry is in trouble and when we have a serious crisis blame it on the Obama Administration all for the purpose of putting another Bush in the White House so Republicans can try to make things better or more likely make things even worse.
While I think the focus on state level is long overdue and do not think we should abandon a federal effort on Online Poker
A state by state effort will be a long slong and efforts to legalize online poker will happen much slower than many people realize especially given the nature of many state legislatures these days.
I also think we cannot rely on the Poker Players Alliance, or the American Gaming Associates to do our bidding for us.
Perphaps the most important thing that has to happen is that we will have to change the make up of both the US Congress and the State governments in the 2014 election in electing a congress and state legslatures that are more receptive to the game of poker in general
Poker Players are going to start using their poker skills in the politcial area, that may mean playing less poker and spending more time with politcial activism and stop relying on the PPA and the AGA to do their bidding for them.
Remember Congress and the State Legslatures are full of Fish, Chips and alot of Dead Money which is the staple of poker players diet so Send In The Sharks
Regarding California and other western states we must using the initiative and refereredem process to get poker legislation past. Sure Washignton has strict anti online poker prohibitions but voters just legialize marijuanna those prohibitions could be reversed by the voters so what are we wating for, here's an opportunity staring us straight in the eye so we should be pursuing it agrressively the same with the state of Colorado.
In the end it is up to us to practice in politics what we preach on the felt
Trying to attach an Online Poker another piece of legislation was always an unrealistic and wrongheaded approach to take since the issue like was always too big to begin with, and like the affordable care has to pass or fail on its own merits.
Trying to attach a Federal Online Gaming Bill on any last minute legislation would be like trying to tow an 18 Wheel Tractor Trailer with a Smart Car or a Scion IQ
The Reid Kyl bill also had to many nonstarters most notibly the Pokerstars Fulltilt banishment for 5 years. Pokerstars/Tilt is just simply too big to banish just like HSBC bank was too big to prosecute for numerous violations of federal law and conservatives feared that this would obivously lead to a political and legal assault on large international corperations like AB-In Bev and moderates and liberals also fear that such actions would threaten the global economy and possilby throw is another recession or worse.
We do need a federal online gaming bill one that allows for free competetion, fair taxation, and generates revenue for both the states and federal government and we need one that will have an infrastructure that will be ready by January 1 2014 which is when all the big legislation like the affordable care act go into effect or we could be faced with a liquidity and equity crisis and without an federal online poker infrastucture the gaming industry and states like Neveda, California, and New Jersey will go broke and Wall Street wont be far behind since many poker players are stockbrokers who use the poker bankrolls to make investments in the market.
Whn it comes to poker legislation, Bill, New Jersey online poker bill is a good example of what an online poker bill should look lijke by allowing for open competition, setting up an online poker infrastructure without the use of taxpayer funds, by providing players with the best online gaming options available at the lowest cost is a good why govenor Christie should sign this bill into law.
In contrast the Reid Kyl bill which does not allow for open competition, does not address the issue of setting up a poker infrastructure, would be a taxpayer give away to the big casino and would offer the least amount of online gaming options at the most absorbenet cost is a good reason why President Obama should veto the Reid Kyl bill in its current form.
I always like Pokerstars which is the best online gaming room out there and as long as the move to purchase the Atlantic Casino saves jobs in the short run and creats jobs in the long bring pokerstars in is a good deal for both New Jersey and could be a great deal for the US Marker at large
Right now Pokerstars is the only company out capable of providing the US Market with the infrastructure for online gaming it needs at little or no cost. No other company can or is willing to do that without a US government handout that will no doulbt entail taxpayer dollars.
Thats why I think New Jersey is taking the most realistic approach to online gaming why our lawmakers in Washington DC craft bad legislation that is devoid of reality.
While I agree with suvivorman that we need a truly American sites service all states who choose to participate, I think not letting Pokerstars back in would be like not letting foreign players play at the WSOP and other American Tourniments and if we lock international sites out of our market they will lock us out of the rest of the world market and the game of poker would suffer as a result.
Personally i always liked playing on stars and they were the best site to play on at the time I would venture to still the best site out there today.
Would I like to see Stars comeback? Yes but there would be a few caveats one they would either have to have a land based casino operation in this country or they would have to set up technical support staff in the US to solve customer issues and more importantly employ American citizens.
And with the exception of Bovada (UB and Absolute Poker are history) we should encourage sites who are currently offering real money games to come in from the could once a licensing regime is set up.
Its seems with its possible purchase of the Atlantic Casino Pokerstars would meet the caveats needed for a return to the US Market and buying a failing casino would not only allow people to play on there favorite site but would also save US jobs which are still important in this fragile recovery.
Again I will say this Pokerstars is the best site out there and they set the bar pretty high, having said that I always would like to see something come from the US Market thats even better and I believe it can happen but it would happen overnight and the likely of homegrown online pokerrooms that are even better than stars are years away.
Not Coming to Online Pokers Rescue: The American Gaming Association Pushes A Bill That Is Bad For The Economy and .
Bad For Poker As Well
I think by now we all know how most people fell about the Reid Kyl Bill simply titled :Internet Gambling Prohibition, Poker Consumer Protection and Strengthening UIGEA Act of 2012, as you can tell I am being sarcastic basically they are fiercely opposed to this bill like myself. If the video by the American Gaming Association was intented to say our opinion in favor of this legislation it failed in fact I am more opposed to this bill now than i was before I saw the video. But this video isn't for skeptics in the real world its for the Senators, Congressmen and the lobbyist who may or may not fund there campaigns depending on how they will vote.
Without going into to much detail here is what I think is wrong with the Reid Kyl Bill and why its a nonstarter from the get go.
1.) Without a national framework online gaming would not expand as fast as the AGA contends and within a period of 4 years you would probably see at most 28 states taking up online gaming mostly selling lottery tickets
2.)This bill would inhibit the states ablility to raise the much needed revenue in order to balance there budgets and pay for healthcare
3.)Under the Reid Kyl bill the states that choose to opt in would only be offering intrastate poker with a very narrow liquidity pool and very few gaming choices
4.)The is a transfer of wealth scheme in which states whose choose to opt in would end up giving their revenue to states like Neveda, California, and New Jersey instead of a revenue sharing model
5.)Infrastructure, we currently have no online poker industry and infrastructure to begin with and without participation from companies like Pokerstars-Full Tilt, Bwin-Party Poker of 888 Holdings setting up such an infrastucture will be very expensive with negative EV in the foreseeable future
6.)Who Pays for the infrastucture then, the Federal Government, the Gaming Corporations, of more likely the taxpayers and who then benefits if the taxpayer pay for it the taxpayer of th Gaming Corporations
7.) This bill creates an online poker monopoly run by the big gaming corporations backed by US taxpayer dollars(more welfare for the rich) and inhibits and prevents startup companies from entering the market, Start Up companies are the main producers of jobs in this country
8.) Online Poker is an enhancement to live poker not a replacement and for any online poker bill to be acceptable it must lead to creating new jobs not eliminating currents jobs.
Online poker was meant to introduce people to the game of poker at minimal cost so people could learn and develope their skills without going broke it was never meant to replace casino poker.
9.) The bills blackout and banishment provisions by locking out poker rooms like Stars, Tilt, Party & 888 and possilbly the professional players who endorsed those sites could be unconstitutional and could also start and international trade war when the world economy least needs one.
10.) History; With his reelection President Obama will look for second term accomplishments and while legalizing online poker could be one of them given is opposition on the Stop Online Piracy Act there is no way he will want to sign a bill titled
Internet Gambling Prohibition, Poker Consumer Protection and Strengthening UIGEA Act of 2012 I dont belive President Obama wants to going in history and signing on Internet Prohibition bill and for this bill in its current form to get the Presidents signature it will have to be titled Internet Gambling Legalization, Licensing, Poker Consumer Proctection and Repeal UIGEA Act of 2012. But it would never passed in Congress, I guess they'll have to work or a real online poker bill