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The Poker Shrink, Vol 32 - Luck or Variance? Magic or Math?

Just how much luck is there is poker? I have stood with some of the biggest names in poker and heard them toss out numbers like 50% or 10%. More complicated answers often sound like '90% short term but only 5% long term....
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TyRooney
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TyRooney
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Posted: 17.03.2007, 09:18
Your wrong to think luck and variance are the same for everyone. Some people are much luckier than others. The lucky people hit the four outer much more often then people who are unlucky. This is the difference between the pros and regular players. Pros are skilled players with above average luck. You add up all poker player's playing variance and it will come out to be statistically correct, but only the individual players with average luck will see the same results. The lucky players balance out the unlucky players statistically. If your an unlucky player you will buck the odds and lose more often then the statistics say you should all your life and if you are a lucky player who is also skilled at the game you will win much more often then statistics say you should. Again, looking at all players the variance will balance out.
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waues
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Posted: 08.01.2008, 16:53
Iam not sure if pros are luckier, but I agree some people are generally luckier than the others.
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lefti
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lefti
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Posted: 08.01.2008, 17:10
waues wrote:
QuoteIam not sure if pros are luckier, but I agree some people are generally luckier than the others.




...yes you are right !! Last week I find a large moneybag ...but it was just wraptpaper in !! Drunken Hellow
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Bassor
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Posted: 09.01.2008, 09:34
I'm definitely in the unlucky category. I run card dead more than Mike "The Mouth".
(3-Diamonds)(8-Spades) Pessimistic Optimism is the best I can muster. (2-Clubs)(9-Hearts)
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davega
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Posted: 09.01.2008, 12:44
Whenever I'm getting those 7-4, 8-3, and 9-2 hands, I'm leaving the table and running to the blackjack table to double down.Laghing
(A-Hearts)(A-Spades)Expect nothing and you'll never be disappointed(A-Diamonds)(A-Clubs)
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