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I've been playing some SnG's on FullTilt and I've noticed a pattern. If I get a chip lead early, the cards soon go dead and I'll finish 3rd or worse. If I'm card dead to begin with, the cards will heat up when it's down to 4 or 5 and I'll finish 1st or 2nd. Anybody else notice these types of patterns?

I've noticed the same patterns in the MTT tourneys too. Get up in chips and then let the suck outs begin.

Halli Hallo

@all

..if you raise up in chips..normaly you play more hands with a wager..so the chance to lose is much bigger lol !! The key of tourney is to elimate runner soon !! be carefull

servus Lefti

Well, I'm getting my money in good but then getting sucked out on.

I don't play FT but have experienced the same scenario @ PS. My observation is that once I accumulate some chips, I get moved to a new table and go card dead. Or if I take a hit to my stack, then I get moved to a table that is loaded with big stacks. It happened just recently.
2 places out of the money on an MTT, 5 players at the table, blinds 400/800, ante 50, my stack is only 2500, I'm BB, everyone folds to button who calls, SB folds, I push for the rest of my chips with A2os. Button shows 22. Flop is A2x. Figure the odds of a one outer on a table of only 5 players.

Just watched Lefti call an all in with KK. Opponent had AK. Flops QJ10. Finished 2 from the $$. This happened on....FullTilt.

I tend to agree with you davega,full tilt poker seems to be the biggest suck-out site of them all,this is the only site where i dont show profit from.

My initial deposit went as most sites where long term i was showing a small profit then happily collecting the bonuses,however with fulltilt i was within about 20 hrs of play in collecting my bonus then....omg.....the suck-outs...wow...50/50,s..more like 99/1 against..all my grinding and hard work down the tubes,this went on for about 3/4 weeks,some nights me and the trouble and strife were sat with a paper noting down the so called 50/50,s and suck-outs...she kept saying its rigged but i disagree...numbers of hands played and all that,however i think possibly 1 or 2 of the sites at times controlls who plays on there site,in the sense that its better to have people re-loading rarther than taking money off the less skilled players....thats just my theory..la di da...

Eventually i cleared the bonus after reloading another $50 then withdrew the lot..now i just play the GB freerolls and have made $18 and might try the jesus fergeson exsperiment,lets say $500 then withdraw..i will never deposit there again though

Last paragraph..honest....,when full tilt hold there ftosp events i find that they bombard you with emails and special offers.....remember earlier what i said about controlling who plays there,well when theese events take place full tilt want there tables and site to look full..anyway la di da...im not saying online poker is rigged because i am actually a winning player discounting the bonuses however small a profit i am showing...i just think there is some substance to my theory. tea time im starving marving...regards...wibble.....TAXIDEL 3PS....TAXIDEL 4PR

I have played wayyyyy too many sites. My profits have been derived from the MTT's. But on most of the sites, I have noticed certain patterns of cards. A few sites that I found very profitable, no longer allow US players so I'm on hold for those. But I'm trying to note patterns of "random" card generation and use it to my advantage.

One example--on Bodog, I noticed that my terrible hold cards would have hit the flop and my decent starting hands weren't holding up. I said the heck with it and reversed my play by playing garbage and tossing quality hands. I was soon the chip leader. A couple of hours into the tourney, the tide seemed to be reversing so I reversed my tactic and went all the way to the final table. I know, I know. You can say i just got lucky at the start of the tourney but I believe in the patterns and use it to my advantage. Ever notice somebody making a preflop call with crap and hitting the flop perfectly? Maybe they are following the patterns too.

I totally agree with your theory of patterns. I've seen that many times. However, I have a real hard time justifying playing garbage cards based on that theory. 'course, that could be why I'm only a break-even player.

Patterns...Cake...RIVER HEAVEN!! Count on it!

davega wrote

I've been playing some SnG's on FullTilt and I've noticed a pattern. If I get a chip lead early, the cards soon go dead and I'll finish 3rd or worse. If I'm card dead to begin with, the cards will heat up when it's down to 4 or 5 and I'll finish 1st or 2nd. Anybody else notice these types of patterns?

I've noticed the same patterns in the MTT tourneys too. Get up in chips and then let the suck outs begin.

do you not get up in chips because you have good cards? then the continuity of good cards cant last forever? just a thought btw these sort of thoughts shouldnt be made by moderators, haha just j/k

LOL....I don't moderate for FullTilt or any other poker site.

davega wrote

LOL....I don't moderate for FullTilt or any other poker site.

i meant moderate here, says it next to youur name, guess thats your rank for post count?

I think what Dave meant was he is not moderating for any other poker room, for pokernews he earned moderator rank by endorsing others to post here and by doing huge input of his free time here at PNews forum.

TonyAceYa wrote

davega wrote

LOL....I don't moderate for FullTilt or any other poker site.

i meant moderate here, says it next to youur name, guess thats your rank for post count?

Yes, I moderate here. As Gedas said, I don't moderate for any other poker room like FullTilt, Stars, etc. So I give my own opinions about them and whatever else.

Oh, and welcome to PN, Tony.

some people tend to be a little more loose aggressive at the start of tournaments to accumulate chips early. when you start losing players, the lower stacks feel the pressure and start playing marginal hands, as you will to with your larger chip stack, this increases the odds of suck outs, as well as gives implied odds for the smaller stacks which induces semi bluffs.

One example--on Bodog, I noticed that my terrible hold cards would have hit the flop and my decent starting hands weren't holding up.

the odds are in favor of flopping something that doesn't meet a marginal starting hand.
Thats why people play like Gus, that is why Gus plays like Gus..

Its basic math with some risk.

I ahve a theory too. It stems from the fact that the poker sites are businesses with the goal of maximizing profits.

i think that the sites have a higher frequency of "exciting" hands in order to keep the average player coming back. e.g. rollercoaster hands, river suckouts, gutshots hitting, etc. i've never tracked them statistically, but it is something i noticed. From a marketing standpoint it makes sense.

The result is that good players get punished. below average players come back to play again.

What do y'all think?

Seems like a good business plan anyway.

Try playing the NBC HU sit n go shootouts they are running now. It seems like it is predetermined who will win at each level. When it is me I feel like I can't be beat.

While I don't play online sites much, I would say that what you describe probably isn't cheating. I play many live tournaments and the same seems to happen not only to me, but to other people. I think it is a function of style of play.

You become lose when you have a big league.
You become tights when you have taken a couple hits.

Most people have an emotional block and don't know true statistics. What is true with the stock market and people only selectively remembering trades, I think it happens a lot with poker also.