Poker Forum

I just uninstalled all my online poker sites.....again.
i had stopped playing for real $$ a while ago. i really don't trust the web sites.

Anyway I spent my old frequent player points and played in some play money games and freerolls that pay out real $$. In doing so i tracked the number of "rollercoaster" hands that i witnessed in about 50 games i played over a couple months. The rate of rollercoaster hands that i witnessed at my table in those games was right at 7 per hour. Again 7 per hour on average. More than once every 10 minutes. I though play $$ and freerolls, who cares.

I actually made enough $$ at those games to build up about $10. enough to play in 2 $5 sit and go 2 table games. i had a fair amount of success in those games and kept playing the $5 games until my $$ ran out. In all i played in 23 sit and go's befroe i was broke again. in those games, i tracked the rollercoaster hands again. this time it was a little lower. 5 per hour. my take on it is that the play was a little better and people weren't all-in as much. But still once every 12 minutes there was an "exciting" hand (by my definition).

In those 23 games i was eliminated 14 times after i was ahead and was outdrawn (with varying percentages attached). i won twice so 14/21 times i suffered bad beats of varying degree. the others were a couple of mistakes, low stacked moves, etc. that i didn't include. i'm just trying to say i'm not padding my stats with marginal "bad beat" hands in order to prove my theory. I also sucked out twice after making bad mistakes to stay alive and double up, for which i apologized to the other guy and acknowleged my "luckiness".

I play a couple 3 or 4 times a month in home games, a league, etc. Although i haven't tracked the rollercoaster hands in these live games, the frequency of those type hands is WAY lower than online. Granted the pace isn't as fast, but we usually keep it moving with 2 decks, etc. There usually is a hand or two in every tourney like that, but no where close to once every 15 mintes. It happens, but not regularly, certainly not frequently like online.

My theory is that built into the programming, there is code that keeps the play "exciting" so that the average player comes back.

Basically, if you are behind your odds of winning the hand are significantly greater than they should be if the card draw was random.

My little statistical snapshot of the overall play is certainly not proof, but it is enough for me. i don't feel that playing in those conditions helps make me a better player. So i uninstalled all the software on my PC and am calling it quits. i am not wasting my time anymore.

thoughts? You all are really solid players and I respect your take on the whole deal. Pick my theory apart please so i can start playing again.

jm

As a matter of fact, If you have to worry about a bad beat every 10 minutes, you're doing something wrong.

Try to play less aggressive, don't make the calls that are going to end up as a coinflip situation at best. The goal should be to risk your stack maybe once or twice in the first hour and only if you're certain to have the opponent dominated. Your tight image will later allow you to pull important moves here and there.

Some players (like myself) aren't meant to play all-in poker

Also, think positive and always stay optimistic. If you end up with a flopped set and the other guy shows a straight draw, don't already assume that he's gonna hit it anyways.

I used to be that way and sometimes still am .. guess what, it usually doesn't turn out good for me

Someday it's all gonna come together .. you'll win with the dominating hands, suck out with dominated hands and you'll get rewarded for all the crap that you had to take all these years .. at least that's what I'm hoping for

Some players (like myself) aren't meant to play all-in poker

That s right! Leave that to me.

again i only have on thing to say.

thousands of people make a living playing poker online. unless it is all rigged in their favor, you theory makes no sense.

live: 30 hands per hour --> 0.6*50
online: 50 hands per hour

7 hands per hour action online --> 0.6*7= 4.2 action hands per hour live.

However, live poker is a lot tighter than online (I think mainly due to the fact that the money is touchable, not electronical ).

suppose you play 100,000 hands, you'll see the same amount of action hands live and online.

However, live poker is a lot tighter than online (I think mainly due to the fact that the money is touchable, not electronical ).

For one thing I think it is true, an other big thing is that when you play like a donk and put a bad beat on a guy online you can rofl but when it is live you ll have the dark eye of everybody on you and it is not the same feeling...

Horoeschio wrote

As a matter of fact, If you have to worry about a bad beat every 10 minutes, you're doing something wrong.

i didn't say i was involved in all the hands. They were hands i witnessed at my table.

I am patient and pick my spots to be aggressive. When i do, the percentages are generally with me. People hit their limited # of outs at a disproportionate rate. That is my theory.

Viticus, Excellent point. But i think you can still make a living online with the scenario i described. i played 23 rounds on my original $10 and finished in the $$ 1/4 games. at the final table 21 times. That is pretty close and i am by no means a pro. i just think that the percentage would be even better if all things were equal, which i contend they are not. Maybe the explanation is that you don't see it as much in the higher dollar games where the pro's make a living b/c the play is better. Less chance to suck out if the players play "correctly". I dunno. That would satisfy both our points.

Rockbottom, good point also, but you still don't see the rollercoaster hands once every 15 minutes in live games. Again maybe it is b/c the play is better like you referred. e.g. i played tonight in a 10 player game. we played just shy of 4 hours and i saw 3 hands like i have been tracking. 3 in 4 hours, not 15 in 4 hours (3/0.6=5) the math doesn't hold.

Thanks though for all your comments. I still haven't re-downloaded the software. Keep an eye on your online games and see if you notice it.