Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 8: Examining the Largest Overlay in Poker History
In poker, an overlay happens when a tournament fails to meet its guaranteed prize pool. As a result, the host venue is forced to go out of pocket to cover the difference. For example, if a casino hosts a $100 buy-in poker tournament with a $10,000 guaranteed prize pool, and only 90 players show up to account for $9,000 of that prize pool, the property is responsible for the $1,000 shortfall.
Small overlays happen quite often in online poker, but they are relatively rare in the live realm. One uncommon example occurred at the end of August when the largest overlay in poker history — a hefty $2.505 million — took place at the Seminole Hard Rock Poker Open (SHRPO) $10 Million Guaranteed Championship.
To put that into perspective, last year’s International Stadiums Poker Tour (ISPT) and Full Tilt Poker UKIPT Galway, both of which boasted €1 million guarantees, made headlines when they ended up with overlays of €589,060 and €140,000, respectively. Those numbers are a far cry from that of SHRPO, but even so neither of those tournaments have returned for an encore.
Therein lies the catch-22 of poker overlays — they’re lucrative for players when they occur, but tend to be one-time affairs. Simply put, most venues aren’t willing to bite the overlay bullet a second time, so after they experience one they either lower the guarantee or do away with it altogether.
In its inaugural outing in 2013, the SHRPO was wildly successful after attracting 2,384 entrants to Hollywood, Florida. That turnout helped them surpass the $10 million guarantee by building a total prize pool of $11.92 million. Players in the poker community lauded the tournament, and organizers were no doubt expecting another successful event in 2014. Instead, things fell flat, be it from lack of interest, competing tours, or a combination of both, as just 1,499 entrants turned up — a 37% attendance decrease — to create a prize pool of just $7.495 million. That left the Seminole Hard Rock liable to meet the advertised $10 million guarantee.
The tournament paid out 300 spots, meaning the player who finished in 301st place would leave empty-handed while the remaining players would secure a minimum $7,483 payday and some “free” money. Exiting just before the money is called bubbling a tournament, and the man who did it with so much extra cash on the line was poker pro Joey Weissman.
It happened when Weissman got his chips all in preflop holding the Q♠Q♥ and was in great shape to double against the K♥10♦ of Bao Nguyen. The 7♦5♦2♦ flop didn’t hit Nguyen directly, but it did give him the only flush draw. The 9♦ turn then completed that flush, and just like that Weissman was eliminated from the tournament with nothing to show for his deep run.
“That was my first ever experience stone bubbling a major event. It obviously was a bit frustrating after playing all of those hours, and with the massive overlay included, it stung a bit,” Weissman told me. “In poker, the only time I feel upset or deflated is when I make a mistake... beating myself gets under my skin more than anything. Fortunately in this case I got my money in great, a 3-to-1 favorite, but sometimes it’s just not good enough. I suppose I was due for a bubble like this.”
Bubbling a tournament is always a tough pill to swallow — especially one with so much extra money on the line — but it’s important to know it happens to the best of us. Some players choose to sit tight and ensure they make the money, while others, like Weissman, play to win. Just ask yourself, are you going to be content with a minimum payday or is the risk of bubbling worth taking a shot at big-time money? My advice — mix it up on the bubble and go for the gold.
Get all the latest PokerNews updates on your social media outlets. Follow us on Twitter and find us on both Facebook and Google+!
PR & Media Manager for PokerNews, Podcast host & 2013 WSOP Bracelet Winner.
In this Series
- 1 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 1: Making Reads and Trusting Them
- 2 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 2: Playing in Poker Charity Events
- 3 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 3: Throttle Back Before You End Up Punting
- 4 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 4: Punish the Satellite Bubble
- 5 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 5: What is Proper Accumulator Strategy?
- 6 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 6: A Chip and a Chair Story with “SirWatts”
- 7 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 7: 15 Things About Poker I Wish I’d Known Sooner
- 8 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 8: Examining the Largest Overlay in Poker History
- 9 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 9: Differences Between Rebuys and Reentries
- 10 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 10: Five Must-Read Poker Books of 2014
- 11 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 11: When Will You Finally Break Through?
- 12 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 12: Dealing with a Target on Your Back
- 13 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 13: Knowing When to Call It Quits
- 14 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 14: Embarking on a Year-Long Weight Loss Journey
- 15 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 15: Navigating Multiple Decision Points in a Poker Hand
- 16 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 16: Chris Moorman Tells Me How Badly I Play Poker
- 17 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 17: Richard “nutsinho” Lyndaker on Getting It in Marginal
- 18 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 18: Getting Inside the Head of Poker Pro Brian Rast
- 19 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 19: Stupid Calls & Lucky Draws in MSPT WI Championship
- 20 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 20: Talking Ante-Only Strategy with Greg “FossilMan” Raymer
- 21 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 21: Contributing to Jonathan Little’s New Book
- 22 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 22: Consequences of Acting Out of Turn & Tossing in Chips
- 23 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 23: When It Comes to Chops, Do What’s In Your Best Interest
- 24 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 24: Accepting Bad Beats & Lessons in Selling Action
- 25 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 25: Heinz’ Ace-High Call Shows Why He's a World Champ
- 26 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 26: Is Keeping the Short Stack Alive Collusion?
- 27 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 27: Great Laydown or Bad Fold on Poker Night in America?
- 28 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 28: Calling Hellmuth with Jack-Deuce Offsuit
- 29 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 29: The Philosophy of "No-Chop" Chad
- 30 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 30: Preparing to Play the World Series of Poker
- 31 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 31: Staying on Your Grind at the World Series of Poker
- 32 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 32: The Perilous Decision to Call Off with Ace-Queen
- 33 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 33: Using Poker Skills in Reality TV Competitions
- 34 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 34: Esfandiari Explains How to Recover from Bad Beats
- 35 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 35: Tilly vs. Brunson in Super High Roller Cash Game Hand
- 36 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol 36: Unconventional Play Leads to Good WSOP Main Event Start
- 37 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 37: Lessons in Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-Low w/ Evan Jarvis
- 38 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 38: Things to Say and Do When You Bust a Poker Tournament
- 39 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 39: How Much Did I Have to Raise to Get You to Fold?
- 40 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 40: Practicing Patience in My Deep PPC Poker Tour Run
- 41 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 41: Analyzing a Questionable SHRPO Main Event Hand
- 42 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 42: Analyzing the Play of Neymar Jr. at EPT Barcelona
- 43 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 43: The Value of a Reliable Poker Reputation
- 44 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 44: John “KasinoKrime” Beauprez Rips My PLO Game Apart
- 45 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 45: Satellite Dilemmas -- To Call or Not to Call
- 46 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 46: Seiver Leverages the River in Super High Roller Bowl
- 47 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 47: What Untraditional Moves in Poker Might Mean
- 48 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 48: Thinking About the Future with Sam Grizzle
- 49 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 49: WCOOP Champ “Coenaldinho7” Offers Up His Biggest Hands
- 50 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 50: The Peril of Shoving Weak Aces
- 51 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 51: The Importance of Not Giving Up in Poker Tournaments
- 52 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 52: Does Asking “Check” Actually Constitute a Check?
- 53 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 53: Thomas Cannuli Impresses Even After Main Event Bustout
- 54 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 54: Dealers Aren’t Always Right
- 55 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 55: Don’t Get Married to Pocket Aces
- 56 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 56: Bazeley’s Survival Instinct Leads to Continued Success
- 57 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 57: Playing “Deuces Wild” on the European Poker Tour
- 58 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 58: The Wildest Hand in European Poker Tour History
- 59 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 59: Death, Zombies & Spending Time w/Phil Hellmuth
- 60 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 60: How the Unstoppable Fedor Holz Managed to Win Again
- 61 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 61: Lessons To Be Learned When You Hit the Big Stage
- 62 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 62: Steve O’Dwyer Explains the “Oreo Cookie Tell”
- 63 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 63: What Would Happen to a Chip Stack If a November Niner Died?
- 64 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 64: Forgetting One Chip -- Should It Still Be an All-In Bet?
- 65 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 65: Todd “sharkslayerrr” Breyfogle on Bankroll Management
- 66 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 66: Cash Game Pro Daniel Arfin Offers Sound Bankroll Advice
- 67 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 67: Honeyman Plays Kings to Keep in Opponent’s Bluff Range
- 68 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 68: Why Do I Even Bother Drinking at the Poker Table?
- 69 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 69: Is Your Favorite Poker Pro Left- or Right-Handed?
- 70 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 70: In Order to Live You Have to Be Willing to Die
- 71 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 71: How to Amass a Big Stack Early in a Poker Tournament
- 72 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 72: Answering User-Submitted Poker Scenarios
- 73 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 73: Saying Goodbye with a Top Five List
- 74 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 74: We're Back, Baby!
- 75 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 75: Jivkov on Exploiting Capped Ranges
- 76 Hold’em with Holloway, Vol. 76: Matt Bretzfield Gets Tricky With Aces
- 77 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 77: Joseph Cheong Gets Crazy with a Pair of Ladies
- 78 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 78: Wyoming Poker Action & Wild South Dakota Hand
- 79 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 79: Calling Controversy at WinStar
- 80 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 80: Going for Value with Matt Hunt
- 81 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 81: Bracelet Winner Ryan Leng on Bad Call
- 82 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 82: Romeopro33 Recounts XL Eclipse Victory
- 83 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 83: Men The Master Doesn't Get Paid
- 84 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 84: Harman Hits Back-to-Back Miracle Turns
- 85 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 85: Jamie Kerstetter on Dealing with Bounties
- 86 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 86: Matt Stout Develops a Limp Dynamic
- 87 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 87: Matt Alexander Caught in Between w/ Two Red Aces
- 88 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 88: John Beauprez on Why He Folded a Set of Jacks
- 89 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 89: Alex Aqel Lets Opponent Hang Himself with Aces
- 90 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 90: David Peters Makes Beastly Call Against Will Givens
- 91 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 91: Poker Lessons from a Game of Risk
- 92 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 92: My Upstuck Diagnosis by the CLC Squad
- 93 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 93: Alex Foxen Coolers Nick Petrangelo in SHRB
- 94 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 94: My $25,000 PSPC Experience at 2019 PCA
- 95 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 95: The Equity of Leveraging Time Extensions
- 96 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 96: Dan O'Brien on Developing Healthy Routines
- 97 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 97: Big Hands From the WSOP-C Potawatomi
- 98 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 98: Simon Deadman Rips Apart My NLH Tourney Play
- 99 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 99: Shoving 10-6 Smack Dab Into Pocket Aces
- 100 Hold'em with Holloway, Vol. 100: The Revived Re-Entries Debate
