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How many players will enter the Main Event
Answer: 6161 with few online poker qualifiers, stricter ID rules, depressed wages, and a recovering but still sluggish economy I project attendence will be down 3% from last year, and this is my most optimistic projection.
How many events will Chris Fergusion and Howard Lederer play
Answer: None both of poker careers are finished lets face it this Full Tilt Ventriloquist act has been closed down for good.
Fulltilt money has been returned to players, I dont know anybody whose received there Full Tilt money back yet.
I know many will disagree with me but I still think Phil Gordons Little Green Book and Little Blue Book still stand the test of time maybe more today than when they were written the concepts are basic but timeless in todays ever changing game.
The Little Gold Book has some good segments like Beware of the Short Stacks but it also has some bad segments like Six Betting Pre Flop
SIX BETTING PREFLOP, SIX BETTING PREFLOP
Its No Limit Holdem not Limit Holdem you either 4 Bet All In or Fold
The WSOP may do what our elected representatives in congress and state legislatures tried but failed to do effectively kill the poker boom.
Hello people dont go to Las Vegas the play online poker they go to play at the World Series of Poker to win money, a braclet, bragging rights or for that once in a lifetime experience to win the Main Event just for the purpose of being the last person standing out of 6 or more thousand people
My Main Event turnout prediction was originally for 6161 entrants but now with these new regulations the turnout may only be 2/3 thirds of that.
On a brighter note when I voted this past Tuesday nobody wasted my time by asked me to show ID to vote
No its not the party that wages the war on women, voting rights, and people living paycheck to paycheck wages war on poker as well.
Plus Utah is a red state and one of the most conversative states in the nation
It amazing how many poker players no nothing about politics
5.) Jailing Poker Players In PA
This proposal is the handywork of the Private Prison Industry which push for laws to jail as many people for trival infractions so they can make huge profits jailing as many citizens a possible some who havent committed any crimes
Its is this type of campaign funding which led to the Kids For Cash Scandal in which a judge wrongly jailed minors for kickbacks
Frances online gaming laws were designed to protect french online poker companies for the big boys like Stars, Tilt and Bwin Party instead it help Stars nearly turn into a global monopoly which could crowd out the competetion.
Worse only holdem and omaha games can be played online, those games could be played in a casino or even at home because no dont really need a dealer. Stud and Draw on the hand are not more cumbersome which is why there are much better suited for online poker. Without these games online they will become a thing of the past.
Also liquidity needs to be throughout the European Union you all have the same currency wouldnt it make sense to have the same liquidity pool.
And finally, France may have a new government but they have the same old policies which is why this government is so unpopular, There current President has a 15% approval rating keep up the good work Inspector Clouseau and you'll have a golden goose egg in no time.
Adelsons casinos are also the only casinos that are non union(according to the internet political show The Young Turks)
He knows online poker wont hurt casinos if anything it well boost business, so why is he opposed because poker is a labor intensive player back game that he believes would cost his casinos more money than would bring.
Not a suprising attitude since his casinos seemed to want no part of the poker boom of the last decade
2 quick comments on your predictions 1st I agree with you no other state will legalize on line poker especially not in Pennsylvania
2nd as for a Big Name Pro winning the WSOP Main Event when people think big name pros I think of the cast of Poker Superstars Part 3 on the Fox Sports Network yes I mean people like Hellmuth, Ivey and Scotty "Baaabby" hope he doesnt abuse me in a reply post. Im talking people like Matasow, and Todd Brunson, Gus Hansen, Chris Ferguson or Howard Lederer after all who follows the Global Poker Index it makes you sound like an Aarron Sorkin writen TV Show. Most of your top players today could be called Annonymus there not celebrity crazy media whores.
Wouldnt it have been better to predict this years WSOP Main Event turnout
which I will when time permits in my top 11 predictions for 2014
Top 11 because like the Nostaglia Critic and Linkara I believe in going one step farther
This schedule while it looks like it could be fun leans too heavlly on No Limit Holdem and not on other games including mixed games.
How about some 7 Card Stud games or HORSE am I the only one who thinks tournament Stud is the future of poker
If I'm going to play just Texas Holdem I dont need to play online poker I can just go out and play my local riverchasers game with real people.
Great article it shows why Jerseys Online Poker Program really misses the mark and is set up to fail
I will save the rest of my comments for a pokernews blog post
My comment on the comments are this
Excluding Poker Stars does not mean excluding the worlds largest players pool since New Jersey residents can only play against each other
Coming to the USA and pleading not guilty just to enter the US Market is a crap shoot at best
Coming to the USA and pleading guilty just to enter the US Market is always a terrible idea.
Remember you can lead a horse to water but a donkey will always follow you to the river
Frankly I cant see why I have to know how much money a big name pro like Phil Ivey or Tom Dwan of Viktor Blom are winning and losing and high tables either online or at casinos that is between them there families and there financiers.
I also dont see what benefit it has for fans poker to know whose getting rich and whos going broke.
Do it for the fans, do we really get that much pleasure what there is in watching Mike Matusow or Erick Lindgren go busto. Come on Mikey go broke for us, if thats what we want then were not good fans were just a bunch of sickos
And the poker community really needs to take a hard look in the mirror
Because its grown so ugly
To size this one up it will be Pappas vs Eggert vs Freeman vs the anti poker crowd( or as I like to put it 1 for 2 on the fence and 3 against I guess that is what we call fair and balanced) which is not suprising given that make up of the Republican dominated House, plus this is a Republican dominated committee and I dont believe the issue of poker legalization on online poker legalization crosses party lines as much as poker players would like to believe.
Still it should provide voting poker players some valuable information on how to play there hands in the next election.
There is a big difference between a bill to study online gaming and bill legalizing online gaming especially one that is much better than the most recent misguided bill proposed by state rep Tina Davis
Still even if we pass a bill similar to New Jersey while it could raise revenues and hopefully produce high paying jobs the benefits will still be relatively marginal
One overlooked reason why gaming revenues have leveled off in the state is due to the economy and the lack of high paying jobs.
There are not alot of people who can afford spend $100 on a cash game or tournament on a weekly basis, plus most of the tournaments are overpriced charging 3 or 4 dollars a minute per blind round.
Example: Tournament with a buy in of $60 + $20(entrance fee) the blinds are 20 minutes per round($80.00/20 minutes blinds= $4.00 per minute)
and thats not counting the antes that kick in at level 5
To remedy this casinos should could lower the price on tournaments to $1.00 per round which is not going to happen
The state could offer a subsidy with a cap of $1000 per year to players through the casinos based on income levels much like that Affordable Care Act therefore lowering the price of tournaments for lower income players in which a portion of the subsidies would be recouped in the form of tax revenue on winnings.
Finally the state could pass a living wage act, if were to raise the mininum wage from $7.25 and hour to $12.50 hour people would have more disposable income which would be spent at both the poker tables, the restraunts and casino shopping outlet producing both a boom in both gaming revenue and sales.
As for online poker even if we able to go back to the pre Dark Friday days online poker would face the same challenges and limited due to economic reality and it will only be a matter of time before we see online gaming revenues level off in New Jersey
He did not turn down a non prosecution agreement it was pulled out from under him because Eric Holders Justice Department thought they had a better witness which I thought was double dealing
To Quote Inspector Morse "Think Lewis Think"
To respond to Panterras observations the wording on the bad actor clause is somewhat vague and subject to interpretation and a straightfoward view would be this applies to UB/Absolute Poker and Calvin Ayers, however a broader interpretation would not only refer to Stars/Tilt/Revolution/Merge but could also refer to Party/Pacific/Mansion/Microgaming who also had to settle with the US Government but also the players who were compensated by those sites and possible anyone who would be part of the Full Tilt Repayment Remissions process or anyone like myself played on those sites regardless of whether of the amount of money desposited in those sites.
So what the legislative intent is will be determined on what is needed to get this on the President desk for signature so we got a long and difficult road ahead
Thats a 7% drop from last year or 93% of last years field if this trend continues the turnout to this year Mainevent around 6131 players as opposed to 6598 in 2012 which would mean will have 467 less players from 2012 as opposed to 267 less player from 2011 which is drop of 150%
As a result of Black Friday, the Federal Budget sequester, state government cuts in aid to both poor and middleclass families, a possible Debt Ceiling Debacle and No Online Poker Legislation, while it will be no Zombie Apocalypse attendence will continue drop all the way out to 2017.
Here is how I forcast the drop by percentage in the future years over each previous years number.
2014 125% Drop
2015 112% Drop
2016 106% Drop
2017 103% Drop
Here's a brain teaser with this forcasting formula what would be the predicted turn out for the 2017 WSOP Main Event?
Alls well that End well I guess assuming Stars gets past the regulatory snags they got save buy a Judge who kept them from buying a 70 million dollar liability known as the Atlantic Club so alls wells that ends well for online poker players but lets not forget about the workers who work at the Atlantic Club casino who may lose there jobs while their employers take the money and run
I might also want to add that most importantly the economy and the future political crisis in Washington DC will also weigh heavly on attendence for the WSOP Main Event and could have a serious negative impact on both the World Series of Pokers future as well as the US poker community
I have decided just for fun to list the attendance for each WSOP Main Event from 2010 foward and provide what I think will be the attendance for the Main Event this year
Here is the last 3 years
Year Turnout Decline in Turnout the Following Year
2010 7319 454
2011 6865 267
2012 6598 175%
And now 2013 Main Event
This is a forecasted drop of 467 players from last or a decline of 175%
While it is no Zombie Apocalypse it does show a continued drop off as a result of Black Friday and unless the Full Tilt remissions process goes foward and a national online poker bill is signed the future drop in attendence for the Main Event will continue
He is the projected formula I am using for years out to 2017
(467 x 150%) and so on
If you use the above formula you should be figure out my predicted decrease attendence figures for the next 4 years following and it is as bad as Chained CP