Two Pair Against a Possible Straight on the River: Bet or Check?
DECISION POINT: In a $1/$2 live no-limit hold'em cash game, you are dealt A♠Q♦ and you raise 4x the big blind from UTG. The player in the hijack seat calls and everyone else folds. You bet the A♣Q♠10♦ flop and your opponent calls, then after the 8♣ turn you bet again and once more the hijack calls. The river is the K♠ and the action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: When considering a river bet, we should analyze its profitability as both a value bet and as a potential bluff.
In this hand, it's pretty hard for us to get value from worse hands than ours. Most two-pair combos that we beat, such as A-T, Q-T, or K-T will all fold to our river bet very frequently. That means that when our opponent calls, they will usually have a better hand than ours.
There's also no real reason to bluff, since few better hands will fold. We might occasionally get sets to fold, but most players will find a call on the river for only a half-pot bet.
This makes checking the best play against a default opponent. If the player moves all in, we should typically fold against most opponents. Fewer opponents are capable of turning something like Q-T into a bluff on the river, so when they bet it's usually a value-heavy range.
If we are up against an opponent who will always call with all two-pair combos, then we can justify betting the river.
Otherwise, checking is the best play.
LearnWPT is a poker training site dedicated to transforming the poker games of rank beginners, skilled amateurs, and aspiring professionals. Offering both Live Workshops and Online Training, is a one-stop shop for poker education, designed to provide all the tools a player needs to become a winner. Visit LearnWPT.com today and get 2 Free Strategy Episodes that will immediately impact how you play. LearnWPT.com - Think Like a Pro!
