Does Bagging the Chip Lead on Day 1 of the WSOP Main Event Translate Into Success?

July 08, 2015

Mickey Doft Live Reporter

Day 1 of the World Series of Poker Main Event is the beginning of a seven-day trek for players to reach the famed November Nine.

For anyone who has played in a multi-day tournament, you've probably heard both schools of thought in how to approach Day 1. Either the, "It's important to get off to a good start," or the "Day 1 doesn't matter, just survive" line.

PokerNews decided to take a look at the last eight year's worth of Day 1 chip leaders and how they started and finished their Main Event run. For the most part, five 120-minute levels are played and the blinds finish at 200/400 with a 50 ante. However, sometimes that hasn't been the case.

Day 1a

What we saw from Day 1a was a range from the best possible result — Martin Jacobson bagging the Day 1a chip lead en route to winning the Main Event — to not even cashing — the case for five of the last eight Day 1a chip leaders.

Year	Day 1a Chip Leader	Chip Count	Day 1a Standing (Entrants)	Result
2014	Martin Jacobson	200,100	1 of 771	1 of 6,683
2013	Evan Panesis	190,975	1 of 943	did not cash
2012	William John	266,700	1 of 1,066	did not cash
2011	Fred Berger	209,500	1 of 897	80 of 6,865
2010	Corwin Cole	228,100	1 of 1,125	did not cash
2009*	Redmond Lee	134,275	1 of 1,116	did not cash
2008**	Mark Garner	194,900	1 of 1,297	did not cash
2007***	Tinten Olivier	270,500	1 of 1,287	223 of 6,385

_{*Four levels played on this Day 1a.}
_{**Players started with 20,000 in chips rather than 30,000.}
_{***Players started with 20,000 in chips and six levels played on this Day 1a.}

Before the 2014 WSOP Main Event, being the Day 1a chip leader meant almost nothing. Prior to last year, in fact, the majority of the recent Day 1a chip leaders failed to even cash in the Main Event. However, when the Day 1a chip leader goes on to win the entire tournament, as Martin Jacobson did last year, then perhaps it's time to start rethinking how important a good start actually is.

Here is Jacobson's path to victory from a numbers and standings perspective:

	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Day 4	Day 5	Day 6	Day 7
End-of-Day Chips	200,100	342,700	721,500	1,594,000	3,925,000	22,335,000	14,900,000
Rank	2	21	29	18	14	1	8
Total Players Left	4,770	1,864	746	291	79	27	9
Chip Average	42,031	107,559	268,753	688,969	2,537,848	7,425,555	22,276,666

After finishing Day 1a as chip leader last summer, Jacobson entered Day 2 second in chips overall. From there, he never ended a day worse than 29th in chips. Until he actually made the final table, he never finished a day out of the top 18 percent of the remaining field. It isn't quite wire-to-wire, but it's something that we would be hard pressed to witness in the Main Event again. In 2006, Jamie Gold seized the chip lead on Day 3 and went wire-to-wire from that point according to reports, but no Day 1 information was readily available.

Day 1b

Year	Day 1b Chip Leader	Chip Count	Day 1b Standing (Entrants)	Result
2014	Trey Luxemburger	193,450	1 of 2,144	did not cash
2013	Clement Tripodi	207,500	1 of 1,942	23 of 6,352
2012	John Hoang	180,000	1 of 2,114	did not cash
2011	Ben Lamb	188,925	1 of 985	3 of 6,865
2010	James Danielson	201,050	1 of 1,489	did not cash
2009*	Brandon Demes	137,075	1 of 873	did not cash
2008**	Ben Sarnoff	177,500	1 of 1,158	did not cash
2007***	Dag Martin Mikkelsen	236,000	1 of 1,545	42 of 6,385

_{*Four levels played on this Day 1a.}
_{**Players started with 20,000 in chips rather than 30,000.}
_{***Players started with 20,000 in chips and six levels played on this Day 1a.}

Ben Lamb was having an incredible summer in 2011. He had four cashes leading up to the Main Event and had made three final tables, which included a bracelet win, a runner-up and a final table in the Poker Players' Championship. He capped it off with a third-place finish in the Main Event for more than $4 million and ran away with the WSOP Player of the Year title.

Aside from Lamb, though, just two other Day 1b chip leaders in recent years cashed.

Day 1c

Year	Day 1c Chip Leader	Chip Count	Day 1c Standing (Entrants)	Result
2014	Eric Tracy	206,175	1 of 3,768	did not cash
2013	Mark Kroon	246,300	1 of 3,418	458 of 6,352
2012	Randy Haddox	188,275	1 of 3,418	194 of 6,598
2011	Kevin Song	263,325	1 of 2,181	did not cash
2010	Mathiu Sauriol	169,900	1 of 2,314	did not cash
2009*	Joe Cada	137,075	1 of 1,696	1 of 6,494
2008**	Henning Granstad	242,950	1 of 1,928	553 of 6,844
2007***	Jeff Norman	281,300	1 of 1,743	500 of 6,385

_{*Four levels played on this Day 1a.}
_{**Players started with 20,000 in chips rather than 30,000.}
_{***Players started with 20,000 in chips and six levels played on this Day 1a.}

The Day 1c chip leaders as a whole did better than both the Day 1a chip leaders and Day 1b chip leaders. Five of the last eight Day 1c chip leaders cashed, led by Joe Cada who went on to win the Main Event in 2009.

Day 1d

Year	Day 1d Chip Leader	Chip Count	Day 1d Standing (Entrants)	Result
2014	--	--	--	--
2013	--	--	--	--
2012	--	--	--	--
2011	Mory Little	179,450	1 of 2,802	504 of 6,865
2010	Steve Billirakis	187,150	1 of 2,391	257 of 7,319
2009*	Troy Weber	353,000	1 of 2,809	did not cash
2008**	Steve Austin	149,000	1 of 2,461	552 of 6,844
2007***	Josh Evans	237,300	1 of 1,810	76 of 6,385

_{*Four levels played on this Day 1a.}
_{**Players started with 20,000 in chips rather than 30,000.}
_{***Players started with 20,000 in chips and six levels played on this Day 1a.}

There were only three starting flights beginning in 2012, resulting in the largest individual Main Event flights in history for the Day 1c's in 2012, 2013 and 2014. As for the Day 1d chip leaders, four of the five between 2007 and 2011 made their way to the money.

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