As the 2008 World Series of Poker begins, let's take a look at some of the big questions for the next six weeks.
1. How many players will enter the Main Event?
This is the big question that gets asked every year, and many have used it as a gauge of poker's popularity. The field size has increased nearly every year of the WSOP's existence, with the exceptions being 1971 (from 7 to 6), 1992 (from 215 to 201) and 2007 (from 8,773 to 6,358).
During the 1970s, the field grew from 7 to 54. By the end of the 1980s it had increased to 178, and by the end of the 1990s it grew to 393. From 2000-2002, the field ranged from 512 to 631. It has since exploded over the past five years. (Listed below, along with the champion and their prize.)
2003: 839 players (Chris Moneymaker, $2.5 million)
2004: 2,576 players (Greg Raymer, $5 million)
2005: 5,619 players (Joe Hachem, $7.5 million)
2006: 8,773 players (Jamie Gold, $12 million)
2007: 6,358 players (Jerry Yang, $8.25 million)
Everyone has an opinion on the Main Event field. Will the weak U.S. economy reduce the field, or will the weak U.S. dollar attract more players from overseas (who get favorable exchange rates)? Will the four-month delay for the final table diminish the turnout, or will the increased exposure for the final nine players lead to more entrants?
My prediction is that the field will be larger than last year, but smaller than 2006 (between 6,400 and 8,000). If ESPN's "nearly live" final table broadcast gets strong ratings in November, then I think the 2009 Main Event field has a shot at breaking the record set in 2006.
2. How big will Event #2 be? (Event #2 is the first $1,500 NLHE tourney.)
In 2004, the WSOP Main Event became the first major tournament to feature multiple starting days, with more than 2,500 players crammed into every conceivable space of Binion's Horseshoe over the span of two days. This year, Event #2 ($1,500 No-Limit Hold'em) has grown so large that it will be the first WSOP preliminary event to require two starting days, with a capacity of roughly 2,000 players per day.
The current record for a WSOP preliminary field is 3,151, set last year in Event #49 ($1,500 No-Limit Hold'em). Event #2 should beat that number rather easily, and hold the record for at least a year, since there will be no alternates seated this year, and none of the other events feature multiple starting days (except for the Main Event, of course).
Event #2 should also set the record for largest WSOP preliminary prize pool and largest preliminary first prize (not counting the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. championship for obvious reasons).
3. Where is the Tournament of Champions?
The original "Tournament of Champions of Poker" was created by Mike Sexton and Chuck Humphrey back in 1999, and it was held at the Orleans Casino here in Las Vegas. It ran for three years as an invitational tournament open only to players who won a tournament the previous year.
The TOC disappeared for several years before it was reincarnated in 2004 as the WSOP Tournament of Champions (the year Harrah's assumed ownership of the WSOP). It lasted for another three years, with a $2 million prize pool each year. But other aspects of the format were different each year.
In 2004, ten players were invited to play for a first prize of $2 million -- winner take all. (And Annie Duke took it all.) In 2005, 114 players qualified through their performances in the WSOP and the WSOP Circuit (though three controversial "sponsor exemptions"), with Mike Matusow earning $1 million for the victory. In 2006, the field was pulled back to 27, and Mike Sexton defeated Daniel Negreanu heads up to win $1 million, half of which he donated to charity.
Since then, the Tournament of Champions has disappeared from the schedule, with no announcement of future plans. The WSOP TOC has always delivered an exciting event featuring some of the biggest names in poker, and it gave something back to the top players with a high-profile freeroll.
While it's poetic that the Tournament of Champions began and ended with Mike Sexton, it's a shame to lose this once-great event. Hopefully, Harrah's has plans to revive the TOC in the future.
4. Will anyone win multiple bracelets?
As difficult as it seems to win multiple bracelets in a single year, it has happened in 22 of the 38 WSOPs. If you skip the first two years (which only featured one event), that means 61% of the WSOPs with more than one event had a multi-bracelet winner.
While it's more difficult to win bracelets with the larger fields, that is balanced somewhat by the increase in the number of events -- there is currently a seven-year streak of players winning multiple bracelets.
The biggest year for multi-bracelet winners was 2003, when there were six different players who won two bracelets each: Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, Men "The Master" Nguyen, Johnny Chan, Layne Flack, John Juanda, and Phil Hellmuth. With 36 events that year, these guys won one out of every three bracelets.
5. Will a woman win an open bracelet event?
Thanks to the WSOP Ladies Event, at least one woman wins a WSOP bracelet each year. But when it comes to open events, women have struggled to beat out men for the most coveted jewelry in poker.
The 2004 WSOP was a fantastic year for women. Three women won open bracelet events that year, and they are among the best female players in the world -- Kathy Liebert ($1,500 limit hold'em shootout), Cyndy Violette ($2,000 seven card stud hi-lo split), and Annie Duke ($2,000 Omaha hi-lo split). A woman wouldn't pick up another open bracelet until 2007, when Katja Thater won $1,500 seven card razz. (Clare Miller gets an honorable mention for winning the 2006 $1,000 seniors no-limit hold'em event, which was co-ed even if it wasn't open to players of all ages.)
If I were a betting man (and I am), I'd bet on a woman winning an open bracelet this year. My feeling is that, on average, a woman should win one out of every 50 open bracelet events. If women come up empty, it'll be a down year. But if women can claim two of the open bracelets, it'll be a great year for the ladies. After several down years, the fairer sex is due for another strong showing at the WSOP.
6. Will a 21-year-old player win a bracelet?
Daniel Negreanu set the record for youngest WSOP bracelet winner back in 1998 at the age of 23, and his record stood for six years. But a youth movement broke out in poker after Chris Moneymaker's 2003 WSOP championship made online poker famous. Starting in 2004, the record for youngest bracelet winner has been broken every single year.
1998: Daniel Negreanu (23 years, 9 months)
2004: Gavin Griffin (22 years old, 8 months)
2005: Eric Froehlich (21 years, 4 months)
2006: Jeff Madsen (21 years, 5 weeks)
2007: Steve Billirakis (21 years, 10 days)
With such a small window of opportunity, it is extremely unlikely that anyone younger than Billirakis will win a bracelet in Las Vegas this year. (Separate records will have to be kept in this category for the WSOP Europe, since their laws allow younger players, including Annette Obrestad, who won the WSOP Europe Main Event bracelet one day before her 19th birthday.)
Even though the record won't be broken, it'll be interesting to see who the youngest bracelet winner will be in 2008. One of the most closely watched players will be Tom Dwan, a 21-year-old online legend (known as "durrrr") who has two top 10 finishes in recent World Poker Tour events (fourth at Foxwoods in November, ninth at the WPT World Championship in April). Dwan has received plenty of praise from the tournament pros who have faced him in these big events, and the expectations for him are high here in the WSOP.
7. Will any players cross major milestones?
Last year, Phil Hellmuth won his 11th bracelet, breaking a three-way tie for career bracelets with Johnny Chan and Doyle Brunson, both of whom have ten. Can Hellmuth win his third bracelet in three years to increase his lead, or will Chan or Brunson catch him first?
Speaking of three bracelets in three years, Allen Cunningham has been crushing the WSOP the past three years. He won Player of the Year honors in 2005, becoming the first player in WSOP history to earn more than $1 million before the Main Event. In 2006, Cunningham added another bracelet and a fourth-place finish in the Main Event (earning
$4.32 million with six cashes that year). Refusing to cool down, Cunningham won his third straight bracelet in 2007 (for a total of five), becoming the first player to do so since Erik Seidel did it in 1992-1994.
Only one player has ever won a bracelet in four straight years -- Doyle Brunson back in 1976-1979. Of course, the fields back then were in the double digits, mere sit-n-gos compared to today's monstrous fields. If Cunningham can make it four in a row this year, that would qualify as one of the most impressive performances in poker history.
8. Who will comprise the November Nine?
For most of the Series, expect the players and media to debate about the pros, cons, and what-if scenarios of the new four-month delay for the final table of the WSOP Main Event. But once the event finally gets underway, expect the debate to transition to "Who will comprise the November Nine?"
While it's always been fun to guess who might survive to reach the biggest final table of the year, it takes on added importance in 2008. A media-friendly professional like Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth, or Annie Duke would be huge. To be honest, it would be fantastic if any woman was at the final table. And there are plenty of online players that have more to offer than a media-friendly last name like "Moneymaker."
The best case scenario would probably be a mix of notable live pros and online pros, with at least one woman and one or two Cinderella stories thrown in. The worst-case scenario would probably be nine middle-class satellite winners who are "just happy to be there."
Whoever it is, those nine players will be presented to the world as the faces of poker as ESPN tries to draw ratings for the "nearly live" broadcast on Tuesday, November 11th. Whether we like it or not, the future of televised poker may rest in the hands of the November Nine.
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