Goodbye Augusta, hello Harbour Town. Like most weeks after The Masters, the top players in golf are taking a much-needed break, leaving the RBC Heritage with a weak field. Although the field is softer than usual on the PGA Tour, we get to see some great young Web.com Tour graduates have a chance to contend with some veterans.
Tyrell Hatton is the top ranked player in this week's tournament, sitting at 15 in the world, and he is coming off a very disappointing Masters. Meanwhile, Matt Kuchar (No. 21) headlines the veteran Americans after closing with a 67 on Sunday to finish T4 at Augusta.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a Par 71 course that plays really short at 7,100 yards. Driving accuracy is a key stat and driving distance does not gain an advantage here as most if not all long hitters will be teeing off with irons or 3 woods. If you are a course history buff, check out some of Pete Dye’s other courses on tour to see which players perform better on them. The bermuda greens at Harbour Town are the smallest on tour, so GIR and Scrambling will join Driving Accuracy as key stats. This is a perfect tournament to look past guys who were in the running at Augusta and could suffer a hangover this week. We aren’t recommending to completely fade them on DraftKings, but decreasing your overall exposure isn't a bad idea. Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Brandon Grace, and Martin Kaymer should be the chalk this week.
Key Stats: Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, GIR, Bogey Avoidance (BA), Putting 10’-15’, 150-175 yard approaches.
Kevin Kisner ($9,700)
Kevin Kisner sits near the top of our rankings at The Fantasy Fanatics this week. In his last four tournaments, he had two great finishes (2nd and 11th) and two mediocre finishes (43rd and 48th).
It seems Kisner has rediscovered the form he had in 2015 when he placed runner up here at Harbour Town. He checks the boxes for course history and form and he definitely has the stats to contend this season. He ranks 18th in Driving Accuracy and Approaches 150-175 and he also ranks 47th in Scrambling. He seems to finally have found something in his flat stick as he posted +1.5 or better SG:P over his last two tournaments before the Masters. At Kisner's price, you can fit an extra mid-tier player on your roster, and we feel he is a perfect play to pivot from the top four popular players on DraftKings this week.
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Adam Hadwin ($8,800)
Adam Hadwin as flying high into the Masters after winning the Valspar and placing sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He made the cut and finished 36 in his Masters debut last week. If you rostered him on DraftKings last week, you definitely should not shy away this week. In 2016 Hadwin finished 30th at Harbour Town and this year he is looking to contend and get his second win of the year. He is one of the best scramblers on tour ranking, ranking fourth on tour, and he rarely makes bogeys, ranking fourth in Bogey Avoidance. He is accurate off the tee, scores well on Par 4s and hits a lot of greens, making him one of the top plays of the week for us.
Value Picks and Sleepers
Pat Perez ($8,100)
Perez’s price seems really low considering his current form and how well he has played the RBC Heritage in the past. He is coming off a 17th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and an 18th at The Masters. In his last four starts at Harbour Town, Perez placed 26th, 18th, 18th and 6th. Perez, like Hadwin, hits fairways and greens and scores well on Par 4s. He also ranks 45th in Scrambling and 31st in Bogey Avoidance. There is not a better player in weak field events than Perez as he sits on top of the weak field rankings according to The Fantasy Fanatics. Perez has the form, history, and stats to be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Jason Dufner ($8,500)
Dufdaddy is in prime form as we approach the heart of the season. He reeled off four straight Top 25 finishes heading into the Masters and then placed 33rd at Augusta. Although Dunfer has not finished better than 14th at Harbour town since 2009, we feel his game is right where it needs to be to contend. He ranks very highly in Driving Accuracy (25th) and sits at 50th in Scrambling. His Par 4 Scoring is only bested by five players on tour as well. He has been making a ton of birdies and making fewer bogeys which makes him an ideal value play this week.
Bounce Back Candidate
Webb Simpson ($7,200)
Simpson has looked awful in his last three starts. He missed the Arnold Palmer Invitational cut by five strokes, he got spanked 5&3, 3&2, and 3&2 in the group stage of the WGC Match Play, and he made a double bogey at 17 on Friday to miss the cut by two at Augusta. We expect Webb to have a bounce back week playing at a course he feels comfortable. He has made six straight cuts here, including two 14th-place finishes and a runner-up in 2013. Webb is average in most of the key stats, but he does excel in scrambling (14th) and Approaches 150-175 yards (28th). Simpson is a great value play as he should make the cut and provides top 25 upside.
Other Players to Consider: Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300), Charles Howell III ($8,200), Marc Leishman ($8,100), Luke List ($7,300), Lucas Glover ($7,200), D.A. Points ($7,200), John Peterson ($6,900), Zac Blair ($6,500)
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