Fantasy NBA: DraftKings and FanDuel Value Plays for Jan. 27
When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there's a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is numberFire, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
The data at numberFire can be used in any number of ways. Can't decide between James Harden and Russell Westbrook? Use the projections to see who the stats say is likely to have a better day. Just want to know which games to target for the most expected fantasy production? There's a chart for that showing how each game on a given slate rates on a number of different metrics. Want to weight some of your favorite players and have a computer spit out some optimized lineups? Use the lineup generator.
The cost of premium content at numberFire depends on what level of membership you use, but we're going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we'll go over three of numberFire's top 10 value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We'll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what numberFire expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing.
|C Myles Turner (INDvsSAC)||$6,400||32.47||16.8||8.3||1.1||0.7||2.5||1.6|
Sacramento plays bad defense as it is, but with Rudy Gay out, the offensive load for DeMarcus Cousins to shoulder is heavier than ever. That means less commitment on the defensive end as he looks to save his energy for offense, so Turner has a juicy matchup here. The Kings also rebound poorly, ranking 24th in rebound rate, so Turner should be a profitable play as long as can avoid foul trouble against Boogie on the other end of the court.
|C Dewayne Dedmon (SAS@NOR)||$3,700||20.22||7.5||7.8||0.8||0.8||1.3||1|
Dedmon hardly ever shoots — that USG% of 12.9 is about as low as you'll see for any player — but he gets enough chances on putbacks and lobs to rack up plenty of fantasy points for the minutes he's on the court. His REB% of 19.7 would put him ninth in the league if he played enough minutes to qualify, so that's really where he makes his mark. The Pelicans represent a nice matchup for Dedmon since they're next-to-last in rebound rate, so he should be a nice play if he gets keeping around 20 minutes at close to the minimum price.
|PF Nerlens Noel (PHIvsHOU)||$4,600||28.74||13.5||8.9||1.5||1.8||1.4||1.6|
Look at those beautiful block and steal projections for Noel, who has stepped into big minutes seamlessly the past few games and been an absolute monster. He's racked up 34.6 and 45.1 FD points in those games and will continue to crush his value threshold if he sees big minutes again in a matchup with high-paced Houston. This play pretty much requires Joel Embiid, who is currently listed as questionable, to sit out again, so keep an eye on the injury wire. Jahlil Okafor's playing, but in light of the team's success featuring Noel — they've won two straight — he's not likely a major threat to Noel.
|SF CJ Miles (INDvsSAC)||$3,700||32.62||15.3||4.3||1||1||0.4||1|
Indiana recently moved Glenn Robinson III out of the starting lineup and the beneficiary is Miles, who has seen 28+ minutes in each of the past three games. His price jumped a bit after back-to-back 18+ DK point efforts but he remains quite affordable at just $3,700. Miles is shooting a career-best 41.2% from deep, and while he doesn't do much besides score, that's plenty in this plus matchup at near the minimum price. He could go for 30 points if he takes 14 shots, as he did two games ago.
|SG/SF Norman Powell (TORvsMIL)||$4,600||34.12||14.6||4.1||2.1||1.9||0.5||1.4|
An injury to DeMar DeRozan has allowed Powell to show off his skills, and he's certainly done that in a big way, making a strong case that he is ready for a bigger role and more minutes. Powell has racked up 30+ DK points in huge minutes (36 per game) with DeRozan out, and while his price has soared from $3,400, there's still value here if Powell maintains that kind of role in a game with one of the higher totals on the slate at 214.5.
|C Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC@IND)||$3,000||19.07||8.2||4.8||0.4||0.9||1||1|
Cauley-Stein's been getting some added run with Rudy Gay done for the year as Sacramento experiments with some bigger lineups. Cauley-Stein has seen 21 and 26 minutes in the past two games and responded with 46.75 DK points. There's no question he's going to produce if he's on the court, and he's capable of going for 30 DK points in the right scenario. DraftKings has yet to adjust his price in accordance with his new role, so take advantage while it remains low.
Want to see all of today's top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try numberFire's premium tools for free!
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