Can Trump Crack Biden's Aces?

Can Trump Crack Biden's Aces?

With two weeks to go until the 2020 US election, and with early voting already underway, the odds are still favouring former Vice President Joe Biden who is still favored to win the election.

Poll analytics website FiveThirtyEight now has Biden as a strong favorite, with his lead beyond that of a "normal polling error" that saw Trump flip the script in 2016.

Trump 72o vs Biden Aces
Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight (10/20/20)

But how strong of a favorite is Biden? Can Trump come from behind and pull off what would be a surprise victory?

Check Out PokerNews' Coverage of the 2020 US Election

If the Candidates were Poker Hands

It's very easy to gauge how far in front or behind a candidate is, using poker odds, and using the PokerNews Texas Hold'em Poker Odds Calculator you can get an idea as to exactly what the current odds mean.

Poker Tools poker odds calculator

Currently, with Biden projected to win 88 in 100 simulated outcomes, it is akin to the former vice president holding AA against President Trump's 72.

Does this 88% chance of winning the Electoral college mean Biden is guaranteed victory? Of course not! Ask anyone who has ever had their aces cracked at the poker table, either live or playing online poker. But it does mean that he is a strong favorite as we approach election day.

Who Has Already Voted?

Many poker players have already voted early, with early voting already open in Nevada as of October 17th. Four-time bracelet winners Brian Hastings and Brian Rast both took to Twitter having cast their ballots.

The Associated Press is reporting that in Nevada alone nearly 176,000 voters had voted in early October, an increase on the 79,000 in 2016.

Want to know if you're in a state that can vote early? FiveThirtyEight has this helpful state-by-state guide:

FiveThirtyEight State-by-State Voting Guide

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What do the Odds Say?

According to online bettors the odds are slightly closer, with oddschecker showing the POTUS having a 44% chance of winning according to the odds.

Last week, the President's odds of winning were 34.8%, but his chances have grown following allegations over Joe Biden's links to Ukraine early this week.

 Fractional OddsAmerican OddsImplied Chance of Winning
Joe Biden7/10-14358%
Donald Trump5/4+12544%

READ MORE: Oliver Gill Talks Betting on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Unlikely Outcomes

  • Biden has an 88% chance of winning the Electoral College in two weeks time, the same as if he had Aces against seven-deuce offsuit

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Managing Editor

Based in the United Kingdom, Will started working for PokerNews as a freelance live reporter in 2015 and joined the full-time staff in 2019. He graduated from the University of Kent in 2017 with a B.A. in German. He also holds an NCTJ Diploma in Sports Journalism.

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