button in SafariJumalon vs. Saaskilahti: WSOP Historian Breaks Down the Final Battle
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Dubbed the "World’s Greatest Unknown WSOP Historian," Robert Jen has spent over a decade meticulously researching, archiving, and analyzing World Series of Poker data. Creator of the Poker Omnibus app and website, Jen has cataloged everything from obscure early-1970s hand recaps to modern high-roller leaderboards using thousands of custom spreadsheets and helper scripts.
Now, with the 2026 WSOP Main Event down to its final two competitors, he's back with some all-important heads-up stats ahead of the $10 million showdown.
And Then There Were Two...
Lucas Jumalon versus Lauri Saaskilahti. Who will come out on top in the Main Event? We'll find out on Wednesday night.
Surprisingly, this is only the third time that the final day of the WSOP Main Event has begun heads-up:
| Year | Day | Leader (chips) | Opponent (chips) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Day 9 | Peter Eastgate (79,500,000) | Ivan Demidov (57,725,000) |
| 2009 | Day 10 | Joe Cada (135,950,000) | Darvin Moon (58,850,000) |
| 2010 | Day 10 | Jonathan Duhamel (188,950,000) | John Racener (30,750,000) |
Of these heads-up showdowns, Eastgate had the smallest lead of 21,775,000 chips, holding 57.9% of the chips, while Cada and Duhamel had large leads of 2.3-to-1 and 6.1-to-1.
Unsurprisingly, given how tight things were in 2008, that heads-up contest took the longest (104 hands), while the others finished in 88 and 43 hands. In each of these three years, all three chip leaders went on to win.
This year's chip leader? 22-year-old Lucas Jumalon who holds a 328,000,000 to 225,000,000 lead over Lauri Saaskilahti going into an unprecedented Day 11. In fact, his lead is very similar to Eastgate's margin in 2008.
So can he turn this lead into a victory? Well, since 2001 the player leading at the start of heads up has lost 5 times:
- Martin Staszko (57.0% in 2011)
- Jay Farber (55.1% in 2013)
- Gordon Vayo (54.2% in 2016)
- Tony Miles (51.7% in 2018)
- Jordan Griff (71.3% in 2024)
Of these five, Griff was the only one with over two-thirds of the chips in play at the start of heads-up. The eventual winner that year, Jonathan Tamayo, was the only player to come back from less than three-sevenths of the chips.
On average, the chip leader started with 64.1% of the chips (ignoring 2020 when chips started even). Despite holding the chip lead throughout the final table, sometimes holding more than double his nearest competitor, Jumalon is just under this at 59.3%.
Jordan Griff is the only player to have sat with a higher percentage of the chips at the start of play, and lost. Jumalon will be aware of this, as will Saaskilahti. Only time will tell who becomes poker's latest $10 million man.
2026 WSOP Main Event Final Table Chip Counts
| Rank/Place | Player | Country | Chip Count/Prize | Big Blinds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Jumalon | United States | 328,000,000 | 109 |
| 2 | Lauri Saaskilahti | Finland | 225,000,000 | 75 |
| 3 | Greg Mueller | Canada | $3,750,000 | |
| 4 | Michael Gagliano | United States | $2,750,000 | |
| 5 | Han Feng | United States | $2,250,000 | |
| 6 | Rami Hammoud | Canada | $1,750,000 | |
| 7 | Jamie Shaevel | United States | $1,500,000 | |
| 8 | Mario Boos | France | $1,250,000 | |
| 9 | Evagoras Evagorou | Cyprus | $1,000,000 |
Where to Watch 2026 WSOP Main Event Final Table
Heads-up play on Day 11 will take place on Wednesday, Aug. 5, with cards going in the air at 6 p.m. local time.
The live stream will be broadcast on ESPN from 10:30 p.m. ET until a winner is crowned.
Internationally, live final table streaming is available in Europe & Asia on HBO Max, with streaming and broadcast access in the UK & Ireland available via TNT Sports, HBO Max, and Discovery+.
Pictures courtesy of WSOP
