button in SafariPrediction Markets Movers and Shakers: An Astros Comeback, Canceled Concerts and a Bitcoin Rally
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Baseball’s final weekend settled one close market. Elsewhere, canceled concerts, a crypto rally, new polling, and early film reactions prompted traders to revise their forecasts. Here are the prediction markets movers and shakers between September 21-27.
The charts were captured after September 27. Their displayed prices may differ from the dated figures in the story.
Baseball: Astros reach the postseason
On Tuesday, Kalshi traders gave Houston a 42% chance of making the playoffs, behind Texas at 60%. The Astros beat Seattle 7–0 that night while the Rangers lost to the Mets. By Wednesday, Houston’s chance had climbed to 68%.
The race went down to Sunday. Houston beat the Athletics 9–0, and Texas lost to Minnesota, giving the Astros the AL West title and a postseason berth. This market’s late surge ended in a confirmed result.
Live music: Sheeran’s Gillette odds plunge
Kalshi’s chance that Ed Sheeran would perform at Gillette Stadium by the end of 2026 fell from 96% to 7.4% after his two scheduled shows were canceled. The promoter cited severe weather warnings ahead of an approaching nor’easter.
The market asks whether Sheeran performs there at any point before year-end. Canceling the scheduled dates, therefore, left a little possibility of another show, rather than immediately deciding on the contract.
Crypto: Bitcoin closes the gap with gold
Bitcoin’s chance of outperforming gold over the full year rose from about 25.7% the previous Friday to 47% on Friday, September 25. Bitcoin briefly topped $86,000 during the week before trading around $83,668 that Friday, while gold had lost ground over the preceding month.
The contract compares the assets’ 2026 returns, rather than their performance in a single week. Bitcoin’s rally made that year-long contest much closer, though traders still put its chance of finishing ahead just below even.
Politics: Collins gains ground in Maine
Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s chance of winning Maine’s Senate race climbed from 27.3% on Thursday to 36% on Saturday, an 8.7-point gain. A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll put her ahead of Democrat Troy Jackson, 49% to 46%.
The market had tightened, but had not flipped: Jackson remained the favorite at 62% on Saturday. The new poll offers context for the move, though it cannot account for every trade.
Film: Digger’s forecast drops 10 points
Kalshi’s forecast for Digger’s eventual Rotten Tomatoes score fell from 63.8% to 53.8% after mixed early reactions to the Tom Cruise film appeared online. Formal reviews were still under embargo during the week.
That was a 10-point fall in the predicted review score, rather than a change in the probability of a particular outcome. Traders were revising their score estimate before full reviews arrived.
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