Call or Fold? Facing a Turn Shove With Overpair of Pocket Kings
DECISION POINT: In a $1/$2 no-limit hold'em cash game, an aggressive player open-raises from middle position and you reraise with . On a flop, your opponent check-raises you and you call. The turn brings the , and your opponent moves all in.
PRO ANSWER: We should call the turn all-in. We are near the top of our range in this spot and if we consistently fold overpairs to this player's aggression, then we will be highly exploitable.
Given the historical aggression we've recorded from this opponent, we are well ahead of the player's range. There are many combos of underpairs to our that our opponent could play for value in this way. In addition, our opponent might be semi-bluffing with hands like 55, A5, or A3.
After the flop check-raise, we should usually move all in with hands like TT-QQ (since they are more vulnerable to overcards), and usually flat-call the raise with AA
Pocket kings is a hand we can either move all in with on the flop or flat-call the raise with the intention of not folding on the turn.
Given that we chose to call the flop raise, we should now call the turn all-in. This play will show a profit in the long run.
Calling is the best play.
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