Flopped Set vs. a Check-Raise -- What Do You Do Here?
DECISION POINT: In a cash game, a player sitting UTG+1 limps in and so does the next player over. Then two more middle position players and the hijack limp in as well. You are in the cutoff seat with A♠A♣ and raise and it folds around to one of the middle position players who calls. Everyone else folds, so it's heads-up to the flop, which comes K♦A♦7♦.
Your opponent checks and you bet, then the middle-position player raises. The action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: In this hand we are heads-up to the flop in a raised pot and flop top set on a "monotone" board (i.e., all three flop cards are the same suit).
After our continuation bet gets raised, we have to make a decision for what is likely to be the remaining effective stack.
In this situation, many players are overly concerned about the potential flush on the board. Flushes are certainly a significant portion of our opponent's range, but overall we are still a favorite in this hand. Our opponent could hold hands like 7x7x, A♥Q♦, A♥Kx and A♥7x in addition to the many diamond combinations.
Sets are extremely powerful because they not only beat other strong made hands, but they also can fill up to a full house or quads to beat any made flushes.
This helps your equity tremendously in situations like this one. In fact, against a reasonable opponent's range that even includes many flushes, we are still a 60-40 favorite in this hand.
Since there will be less than a pot-sized bet left in stacks if we call, and because a diamond on the turn may kill our action when our opponent has two pair or a lower set, we should move all in on the flop.
Moving all-in is the best play.
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