button in SafariWas Felipe Boianovsky's Impressive River Fold GTO Wizard Approved?
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Lukas Robinson uses GTO Wizard to analyze a heads-up hand featuring Felipe Boianovsky and "HeXagon_" in the $10,000 buy-in GGMillion$ from earlier this year.
At the start of the hand, Boianovsky was in the small blind with 6,485,668 chips (32.4 big blinds), while "HeXagon_" occupied the big blind seat with a 13,333,332 stack (66.6 big blinds)
Pre-flop Action
Felipe Boianovsky raised to 440,000 with 8♣4♣. HeXagon_ called from the BB with 8♦2♦.
Post-Flop
Flop (930,000 Pot): 8♥3♣2♣
Action: HeXagon_ checked. Boianovsky bet 940,000. HeXagon_ called.
Turn (2,810,000 Pot): 7♦
Action: HeXagon_ checked. Boianovsky checked back.
River (2,810,000 Pot): K♥
Action: HeXagon_ checked, and Boianovsky fired 2,163,700. HeXagon_ responded by moving all-in for 2,941,968 more.
Boianovsky went deep into the tank before eventually folding.
After being dealt what looked like a brutal cooler on the flop, it seemed almost inevitable that Boianovsky would lose all of their chips and be eliminated. Instead, he navigated the hand brilliantly, making a huge river fold to stay alive in the tournament.
But did both players actually play the hand correctly according to GTO? Let’s use the GTO Wizard solver to find out.
Pre-flop Analysis
Boianovsky raised to 440,000 with 8♣4♣ GTO Approved ✔️
84s is a pure open-raise in this spot.
HeXagon_ called from the BB with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
82s is also a pure call versus the open in this spot.
Post-flop Analysis
Flop (930,000 Pot): 8♥3♣2♣
HeXagon_ checked with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
The BB has no donk-bets on this board, as the SB holds a significant range advantage.
Boianovsky bet 940,000 with 8♣4♣ GTO Approved ✔️
The solver mostly prefers using the 40% sizing on this flop, although you can see that it still uses the 100% sizing that Boianovsky chose in-game at a frequency of 17%.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 84s:
However, you can see that both the 40% sizing and checking generate more EV than betting 100% with 8♣4♣. The hands that primarily use the 100% sizing are stronger 8x combos and overpairs, as they are targeting weaker 8x holdings and draws in the BB’s range. These stronger value hands still require significant protection against the many draws and hands with equity available to the BB, which is why they favor the larger sizing.
Because Boianovsky chose the 100% sizing with 8♣4♣, I will nodelock his range to use this size at a higher frequency, reflecting the strategy he employed in-game.
HeXagon_ called with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
Some raising does occur with stronger 8x combos and selected bluffs. However, all two-pair hands on this flop prefer calling vs this bet size.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 82s:
8♦2♦ is a pure call vs this large flop bet. With two pairs on this board in a heads-up pot, there is very little need for protection. By calling, the BB keeps in a large number of weaker hands from the SB’s range that can continue bluffing on future streets, allowing the BB to extract more value on the turn and river from these types of hands.
Turn (2,810,000 Pot): 7♦
HeXagon_ checked with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
Again, there are no donk-bets on this turn card, as the SB still holds the range advantage in this spot.
Boianovsky checked back with 8♣4♣. GTO Disapproved ✖️
There is a 67.2% betting frequency and a 32.8% checking frequency on this turn card. Unfortunately for Boianovsky,8♣4♣ falls into the pure betting range according to the solver.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 84s:
All 8x combos on this turn prefer betting for both value and protection on such a wet board texture. With 8♣4♣ specifically, betting 67% generates significantly more EV overall than checking.
All ‘Top Pairs’ in the SB Range on the Turn:
Above, you can see that almost every 8x combo in the SB’s range prefers betting 67% for value on this turn card.
To better reflect the strategy Boianovsky used in game, I’ll nodelock the SB range to include more checking with hands such as 84s.
River (2,810,000 Pot): K♥
HeXagon_ checked the river with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
A lot of the Kx two-pair combos prefer betting 40% on this river. However, the 82s two-pair combos mostly want to check. By checking, these hands unblock the Kx value hands in the SB’s range that will now bet the river, allowing the BB to then implement a check-raise all-in strategy for maximum value, exactly as HeXagon_ did in-game.
Boianovsky bet 2,163,700 on the river with 8♣4♣. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for 84s:
Betting the 67% sizing that Boianovsky used in game generates the highest EV overall in this spot, as 8♣4♣ can comfortably value bet for this size and still be called by plenty of worse hands.
HeXagon_ raised all-in for 2,941,968 more with 8♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for 82s:
Raising all-in with 8♦2♦ two-pair generates the highest EV overall vs this bet size.
Boianovsky folded to the all-in with 8♣4♣. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for 84s:
A great disciplined fold from Boianovsky on the river with 8♣4♣. You can see that when calling with 84s in this spot, you generally do not want to hold clubs, as they block the missed flush draws in the BB’s range. This is why 8♣4♣ becomes a fold, while the other two 84s combos remain profitable calls.
Key Takeaways
- The BB has no donk-betting strategy on this flop or turn, as the SB retains the range advantage on both streets.
- On the flop, stronger 8x combos and overpairs prefer the large 100% sizing for value and protection on this wet board texture.
Two-pair hands such as 8♦2♦ mostly prefer to call on the flop rather than raise, allowing weaker hands with low equity to continue bluffing on later streets. - On the turn, almost all 8x combos want to continue betting for value and protection.
- On the river, 82s prefers checking in order to implement a profitable check-raise all-in strategy, due to now unblocking top pair.
- Blockers are crucial in river decisions. 8♣4♣ is a fold because it blocks the BB’s missed flush draws, while the other 84s combos are profitable calls.
- Both players ultimately found the solver-approved river play, with HeXagon_ making the highest EV raise and Boianovsky making an excellent fold.
You can watch the full hand on YouTube by fast-forwarding to 03:46:00.
