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Despite September Decline in Revenue, Macau Has Expectations for a Brighter October

Despite September Decline in Revenue, Macau Has Expectations for a Brighter October 0001
  • Despite posting a record five-year low in September gaming revenue, Macau has expectations for a brighter October.

Despite longer-term concerns about Chinese VIP gambling tourists visiting the city in declining numbers and the more recent theft by employees at Dore Holdings, analysts believe that October should prove to show a smaller Gross Gaming Revene (GGR) decline than September in Macau. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. analysts Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy estimate that Macau casinos in October 2015 will still record a GGR decrease when compared to October 2014, however, depending on market conditions should be approximately 27 percent.

There are also signs of a smaller decline in October based on GGR picking up its pace at the end of September. Credit Suisse AG analysts Kenneth Fong and Isis Wong commented last week that GGR "has sequentially picked up post-Dore junket." Additionally, the analysts stated in a note last week that a rebound in revenue was already present in the later part of September.

"Despite the concern over capital flight post-Dore incident reported on Sept. 9, which has dragged the ADR (average daily revenue) lower in mid-September, the momentum was actually picking up towards the end of the month," commented Fong and Wong.

The analysts also believe that most of the impact of the gaming junket theft is behind us, stating that, "The gradual pick up in GGR (despite slower seasonality ahead of Golden week holiday) suggested that the Dore incident has not caused major systemic damage and junket liquidity [is] stabilizing."

BloombergBusiness also reported positive signs of things to come in October, sharing that 327,186 visitors came to Macau on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2, the first two days of Golden Week holiday, according to data released by the Macau Government Tourist Office. This represents a 13.4-percent increase when compared to the same two days in 2014.

Investors have already taken notice of both this data along with news from the Chinese government about its plans to implement new policies to help prop the economy in Macau. BloombergBusiness reports that shares in Macau casinos are surging on the Hong Kong financial markets, with Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. leading the way with a 9.9-percent increase in share price.

Other companies to also benefit from recent news after a drop in share prices following last month's gaming junket theft were Sands China Ltd. and Wynn Macau Ltd., both increasing by more than eight percent, SJM Holdings Ltd. increasing by 7.9 percent, and MGM China Holdings Ltd. jumping by five percent.

*Image courtesy of Kong.

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