Does Phil Hellmuth Play Scared Poker? Poker Coach Rips into 'Poker Brat'
In August, cash game grinder and Hungry Horse Poker founder Marc Goone spent 100 hours studying Alan Keating’s play. The Hustler Casino Live commentator walked away impressed with Keating’s cash game skills.
Earlier this week, Goone turned his attention to 17-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth. After reviewing 100 hours of Hellmuth’s cash game footage, his verdict was far less flattering, concluding that fear ruled him when the Poker Brat sat at the felt.
Of course, Hellmuth has built his legacy in tournaments rather than cash games, so some might say the comparison is unfair. Still, the self-proclaimed “White Magic” specialist has long claimed he’s among the best in both arenas, claims that Goone’s analysis may force him to rethink.
Hellmuth's Cash Game Poker Stats
The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. According to data compiled by HighRollPoker.com, across nearly 600 hours of livestreamed cash games dating back to 2006, Phil Hellmuth has dropped more than $825,000, averaging –$1,402 an hour and –3.71 big blinds per hour.
There are some winning stretches, most notably $88,325 on Poker After Dark, $66,200 on No Gamble No Future, and $53,060 on PokerGO. However, they’re dwarfed by big losses elsewhere. The steepest came on PokerStars' The Big Game (–$422,600) and HCL (–$273,575), which together account for the majority of his downswing.
| Location | Net Winnings | Hours Played | Hourly $ | BB/Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champions Poker Live | -$18,150 | 75.5 | -$240 | -2.09 |
| High Stakes Poker | -$162,750 | 30 | -$5,425 | -4.28 |
| Hustler Casino Live | -$273,575 | 30 | -$9,119 | -21.37 |
| Live At The Bike (WIP) | -$131,250 | 58 | -$2,263 | -14.42 |
| No Gamble No Future | $66,200 | 32 | $2,069 | 4.47 |
| PartyPoker Live | -$35,000 | 12 | -$2,917 | -58.33 |
| Poker After Dark | $88,325 | 148 | $597 | 0.83 |
| Poker Night In America | -$7,150 | 92 | -$78 | -1.55 |
| PokerGO Extras | $53,060 | 47 | $1,129 | 14.23 |
| PokerStars Live | -$422,600 | 54 | -$7,826 | -19.56 |
| WPT Cash | $17,850 | 10 | $1,785 | 6.87 |
| TOTAL | -$825,040 | 588.5 | -$1,402 | -3.71 |
Analyzing Hellmuth's Cash Game Poker Skills
When breaking down Hellmuth’s game, Goone didn’t hold back. “This leak bleeds money in today’s games... I see players at $2/$5 and $5/$10 every single day wondering why they can’t move up [in stakes],” he said.
Goone pinpointed the leak as fear, arguing that Hellmuth plays “scared poker.” The first red flag, according to Goone, was Hellmuth’s overly cautious preflop approach. He suggested that Hellmuth doesn't want to have to make a tough decision and a couple of examples show that fear may be guiding Hellmuth's actions.
The first example shows Hellmuth playing on HCL with the likes of Keating and businessmen Stanley Choi and Chamath Palihapitiya.
Playing $100/$200, Hellmuth opened K♠K♦ under the gun to $800. Alan Keating and Chamath Palihapitiya called from the button and big blind before Stanley Choi three-bet to $5,200. Hellmuth snap-called without even pausing to consider a four-bet.
Goone explained the situation: “In this configuration, an under-the-gun vs. big blind in equilibrium, sure pocket kings is supposed to be flatted most of the time in this tight vs. tight configuration. But we’re playing against Stanley Choi, who is aggressive. They’re playing on stream where players are going to three-bet much wider.”
So why didn’t Hellmuth even think about putting in a four-bet? “My guess is because if Hellmuth four-bets and gets five-bet or jammed on, he has a tough decision. He wants to avoid tough decisions because he is scared to make them.”
More hands followed, with Hellmuth taking a similarly passive approach holding Big Slick. Rather than applying pressure, he repeatedly flatted raises, smooth-called three-bets, and on one occasion even folded ace-king when facing a squeeze.
Hellmuth's ire of tough decisions on flops were also highlighted, and Goone brought up a famous hand between Hellmuth and Doug Polk, where the latter folded the second nuts to Hellmuth all-in flop bet.
Hellmuth had the nut-straight with Q♠10♥ on the J♠9♠8♥ flop, where Polk had 10♦7♣ and looked destined to get stacked.
Polk and Hellmuth checked from the straddle and hijack respectively, where James Bord fired out for $2,000. Polk made it $7,000 before Hellmuth ripped in his stack of $97,200. Bord quickly got out of the way, and after a ton of thinking time, Polk made what could be considered the greatest fold in poker history.
"The only explanation for this is because he doesn't want to have to play turns and rivers. He doesn't know what to do if the board pairs or if a spade rolls out and he doesn't want to have to make that tough decision later. He just chops off his EV.
"Polk's never made an exploit in his entire life and will do what the solver says in this situation. Polk finds the fold because this line so absolutely ridiculous and once again Hellmuth letting fear override actually making money.
Next, Goone argued that Hellmuth’s cautiousness stems from a fear of looking foolish. He highlighted one instance where Hellmuth sat in a $25/$50/$100 game with only a $5,000 stack—just 50 big blinds—in a lineup full of players “who have no idea how to play poker.”
“Hellmuth has this innate fear of looking foolish when deep,” Goone said. “He doesn’t want to make a big blunder, he doesn’t want to make a bad decision. So instead, he just clips all of the EV he should be earning in this lineup and buys in incredibly short instead—because he just doesn’t want to look like a dummy.”
Goone rounded out his critique by pointing to other recurring fears in Hellmuth’s game. He argued that the all-time leading bracelet winner sometimes plays as though he’s afraid of not getting paid off in big pots, while also showing signs of a fear of being pushed around.
Combined with earlier examples of passivity and short-stacking, Goone suggested that these tendencies add up to a style that leaves significant money on the table in modern high-stakes cash games.
