button in SafariWhen Will the 2026 WSOP Main Event Money Bubble Burst?
For many players in the World Series of Poker Main Event, the goal isn't making the final table or winning the bracelet. It's simply making the money.
With Day 2abc now underway and Day 2d still to come, that familiar question is starting to make the rounds of the Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas tournament floor: When will the bubble burst?
While the final field size won't be known until registration closes at the end of Day 2d, recent history gives us a pretty good idea.
According to WSOP Czar Kevin Mathers, the official 2026 WSOP Main Event structure sheet projects the money bubble to burst early on Day 4, around Level 17, and that's almost exactly how the tournament has played out in each of the last three years.
History Suggests Another Day 4 Bubble
In 2025, a field of 9,735 entries was reduced to 3,453 players for Day 3. By the time bags came out at the end of the night, just 1,476 players remained.
With 1,462 places paid, the tournament was only 14 eliminations away from the money.
The year before, 3,617 players returned for Day 3 from a field of 10,112 entries. Play stopped with 1,524 players left, only six spots away from the 1,518 paid places.
The same thing happened in 2023, when Day 3 ended with 1,518 players remaining and 1,507 players set to be paid.
Only in 2022 did the tournament actually reach the money before bags were sealed, with the bubble bursting late on Day 3.
| Year | Day 3 Field | Paid | Players Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3,453 of 9,735 | 1,462 | 1,476 |
| 2024 | 3,617 of 10,112 | 1,518 | 1,524 |
| 2023 | 3,538 of 10,043 | 1,507 | 1,518 |
| 2022 | 2,993 of 8,663 | 1,302 | Money reached late on Day 3 |
If the tournament follows a similar pace again this year, players can expect another nerve-racking finish to Day 3 before returning the following morning just a few eliminations away from locking up a payday.
Last Year's Bubble Was One to Remember
If you remember last summer's bubble, you'll recall it didn't disappoint. With hand-for-hand play in full swing, three players busted simultaneously to leave tournament officials with an unusual situation.
British high-stakes pro Matthew Frankland was officially recorded as the bubble boy after exiting in 1,462nd place, while Marco Dickner and Sachin Joshi also hit the rail during the same hand-for-hand round.
Rather than sending anyone home empty-handed, the WSOP split the prize money for 1,460th and 1,461st place between the trio, meaning each player received $10,000. However, there was still one prize left to decide.
Instead of the traditional seat into the following year's Main Event, the WSOP awarded a $25,000 WSOP Paradise Super Main Event seat. The three eliminated players took part in a one-hand flip to determine the winner.
Dickner started with pocket nines, Frankland held king-four, and Joshi tabled ten-deuce. By the river, Frankland had made a straight to claim the Bahamas package and the unofficial title of Main Event bubble boy.
The real heartbreak on the 2025 bubble belonged to Adam Rude, who busted one spot earlier in 1,463rd after flopping a set only to lose to a river flush, making him the last player to leave without any consolation prize.
