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Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff

Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff
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  • Parker @tonkaaaap Talbot analyzes an attempted river bluff in a final table hand on @888poker.

  • An interesting postflop spot for Parker Talbot in the $10K Sunday Deepstack Monsoon[/B] on @888poker.

I have a video to share with you today — highlights from a recent final table, the $55 buy-in $10,0000 Sunday Deepstack Monsoon on 888poker.

If you watch below you'll hear me say after one of the hands "we'll mark that one to review." It was a pretty cool hand. Of course, I say "cool" but it had kind of an awkward ending for me.

The hand starts around the 8:30 mark and comes when we were three-handed and I was the chip leader. I raised the button with {A-Hearts}{J-Diamonds} and saw a really tiny three-bet from the big blind.

This guy was playing kind of weak — not super-terrible, but not great. I decided just to call the small three-bet, although looking back at it now and knowing the result of the hand, I'd have preferred to four-bet push for the 40-plus BB effective stacks, especially considering the ICM pressure shoving would cause since the player not in the hand was much shorter than my opponent.

It would have been a great spot to apply pressure, because even if he were to call I probably would have had equity, and even if I he called and I lose, I still would have had plenty of chips going forward.

But I just called the three-bet, and the flop came {4-Hearts}{K-Diamonds}{8-Hearts} — reasonable for me (backdoor flush and straight draws), and pretty good for him. He continued for about a third of the pot and I called, then the turn brought the {Q-Diamonds}.

Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff 101
Parker "tonkaaaap" Talbot

My opponent bet again, this time a little less than half the pot. I wouldn't hate to see a fold here by me, although I decided to float and call the second barrel. I was blocking both flush draws and just about all the combo draws, but it was a pretty bad hand to be calling with. I only had two clean outs to the nuts, and I would be guessing if an ace rolled off on the river.

But I called again, so that's a couple of mistakes in the hand so far — that's all right, stuff happens when you party!

The river was the {9-Clubs}, which means I end with ace-high. There was close to 500,000 in the middle, and with almost 400,000 behind my opponent checked.

I think it's a really weird check from him. He's kind of polarized. He shouldn't really have a ton of good hands anymore. He should just have like {K-}{J-}, {K-}{10-}, {A-}{K-}, {A-}{A-}. If he has two pair he should have {K-}{Q-}, {K-}{9-}-suited, {Q-}{8-}-suited... maybe {9-Diamonds}{8-Diamonds} if he chose to double-barrel that.

But a lot of these hands just want to shove, anyway. Maybe not the weaker two-pair hands, but most of them. I don't think it's insane to check-call some of them, but I would expect most people to be shoving them, or betting at the very least.

Meanwhile I have no showdown value and block both flush draws. It's not great to be bluffing with missed flush draws, but ultimately that's what I decided to do. I'm honestly not sure about this situation, but after calling the turn I'm definitely repping a strong range (and I do block the nuts), and I don't expect him to have anything better than one pair or maybe a few weak two-pair hands.

Putting all that together with the ICM pressure shoving would cause, I did shove — and he called pretty quickly with {K-Spades}{4-Diamonds}.

Obviously seeing this, I know that if he's three-betting with king-four offsuit — and doing so with bad sizing, too — I should be shoving preflop and just printing chips. But as played, I think I need to bluff the river (or perhaps just fold the turn).

Looking at it from his perspective, I feel like if you three-bet with king-four and then double-barrel it, you're going to want to bet the river a lot. I shouldn't have {J-}{10-} that often except maybe {J-Hearts}{10-Hearts} or {J-Diamonds}{10-Diamonds}, and he blocks my good two-pair hands like {K-}{Q-} and {K-}{8-}. So I'm going to want to call him a lot with one-pair hands, which means he ought to bet the river.

There are some other fun hands, too, from this final table — ones that went better for me (and less awkwardly). Take a look below:

Online poker pro and 888poker Ambassador Parker "tonkaaaap" Talbot of Toronto is currently one of the game’s most popular and entertaining Twitch streamers. He can be found streaming several times a week on his Team NeverLucky channel. In addition to playing online, Talbot has collected numerous live tournament scores over recent years, highlighted by a €160,080 cash and final table in a EPT Barcelona High Roller.

Have you ever wanted to write your own articles about poker? Maybe you've got some experiences or opinions about poker that you'd like to share. PokerNews is proud to launch The PN Blog where you can have a platform to make your voice heard. Learn more here.

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