How to Dominate Final Tables with Overbet Shoves
When it comes to closing out tournaments under ICM pressure, few plays apply more heat than the flop overbet shove, and 2022 WSOP Main Event champion Espen Jørstad is here to break down exactly why.
In a recent strategy video from GTO Wizard, Jørstad explores a new and often misunderstood solver-approved concept, ending hands early by shoving all-in on the flop in ICM-sensitive situations.
Jørstad breaks down how solver-approved flop jams can put opponents in hell and help you close out tournaments like a pro.
What’s the Concept?
Solvers often show a surprising preference for ending hands immediately on the flop in certain ICM spots. Why? Because it avoids future complications, such as scary turn cards, tough river spots, and check-raises that force you off hands with real equity.
By overbet shoving, you're essentially taking initiative and denying your opponent the opportunity to realize their equity or apply pressure themselves.
Why Does This Happen?
At final tables, stack preservation becomes more important than chip accumulation. That’s the heart of ICM (Independent Chip Model). Shoving forces opponents to risk their tournament life, even with solid but non-nutted hands.
As Jørstad explains, this approach:
- Preserves your stack (chips lost hurt more than chips won help)
- Avoids scary turns that could kill your equity
- Punishes hands that can’t comfortably call for their tournament life
- Steals fold equity and flips the pressure dynamic
When Does This Come Into Play?
Not every board or situation warrants an overbet shove. The spots where this concept most frequently appears tend to share three factors:
- Equity Shifts – Boards where future streets will heavily alter equity, like draw-heavy textures.
- Board Texture – Low or mid flush draw boards (e.g., KT8 two-tone) are prime candidates.
- Mutual Risk Premium – Both players must have something to lose, meaning neither is ultra-short or overwhelmingly dominant in chips.
What Hands Are Used?
These shoves aren’t just for monsters. In solver land, all-in ranges include:
- Main Value Hands: Top pair-top kicker, overpairs, and hands in the 40-80% equity range.
- Bluff Combos: High-card blockers that share equity with the value range (e.g., QJ, KJ on T-high boards), or big Ax hands that block top pair and deny equity.
It’s about putting the opponent in a spot where folding becomes the safest play, even if they’re ahead.
Common Final Table Spots
Espen highlights several typical final table setups where this dynamic comes into play:
- In position (IP) jam: Button vs Big Blind in single-raised pots
- Out of position (OOP) jam: Cutoff opens, Lowjack calls
- Three-bet pots: Both IP and OOP, especially CO vs BTN
- Lead-jamming from BB: After defending vs Button opens, both when covered and covering
Why This Matters
You don’t need to start jamming every flop after watching this. That’s not the point. This video is about getting curious. Overbet shoves in ICM spots are showing up more and more in solver outputs, and top players are starting to use them in the real world.
The first step is just knowing that this exists. Once you're aware of it, you can start spotting the patterns, and maybe even find a few spots to use it yourself when the pressure’s on.
