GTO Wizard Review: Mateos vs Ponakovs GGMillion$ Duel
Table Of Contents
It's what every poker fan wants to see: a heads-up duel between two of the game’s most elite competitors
That's what happened at the final table of the $10,300 GGMillion$ between Adrian Mateos and Aleksejs Ponakovs. With over $300,000 awaiting the winner, and a $66,000 pay jump between first and second place, the importance of making the correct decision is immense.
In this hand, Mateos enters the battle with a commanding 4-to-1 chip lead, while Ponakovs sits with just 16 big blinds looking for a way back into the contest. What begins as a modest, limped pot quickly spirals into a complex high-stakes puzzle. How well did the players do and were their decisions "GTO Approved?" Let's find out!
The Hand Breakdown
| Player | Position | Stack | Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mateos | SB/BTN | 68.2bb | A♥5♥ |
| Aleksejs Ponakovs | BB | 16.4bb | 9♥2♠ |
The action kicks off with Mateos limping from the button with A♥5♥ and Ponakovs checks his big blind with 9♥2♠.
The flop came Q♥5♠5♦, giving Mateos trips. Ponakovs leads out with a donk-bet and Mateos calls. Both players checked the 8♦ turn and the river was the 7♣. Ponakovs bet 561,000 and Mateos put Ponakovs all-in for an extra 2,297,339. Ponakovs folded.
A very interesting heads-up hand between two of the best players in the world. Let’s see if the GTO Wizard solver agrees with how they played it.
Pre-flop Analysis
Adrian Mateos limps holding A♥5♥. GTO Approved ✔️
A♥5♥ mostly limps, with a small amount of raising occurring at a very low frequency.
Aleks Ponakovs checks back with 9♥2♠. GTO Approved ✔️
92o raises occasionally but mostly checks back. Unsurprisingly, both players found the highest EV lines pre-flop. Let’s see if they continued to do so in their post-flop decisions.
Post-flop Analysis
On the Q♥5♠5♦ flop, with 450,000 in the pot already, Ponakovs donk-bets to 200,000 with 9♥2♠. GTO Disapproved ✖️
The solver recommends checking 96% of the time from the BB on this board.
The EV of 92o combos on the flop:
Checking is the highest EV line on the flop for all 92o combos. Since Ponakovs played the flop off-tree, we’ll nodelock him to include more donk bets in his range so we can analyse the optimal strategies for playing against it.
Mateos calls with A♥5♥. GTO Disapproved ✖️
There is significantly more raising against this nodelocked donk bet compared to the low-frequency donk bet recommended by the solver in the BB’s flop strategy.
Recommended Strategy and EV for A5s on the flop:
The solver now recommends raising A5s against this nodelocked donk bet strategy. Against the initial solver-recommended BB flop strategy, A5s was just a pure call. So Mateos didn’t make a huge mistake here, but against Ponakovs’ actual in-game range, raising with A♥5♥ produces the highest EV.
The turn brought the 8♦ with 850,000 in the pot. Ponakovs checks the turn with 9♥2♠. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for 92o on the turn:
The solver recommends mixing between betting and checking with nearly every 92o combo.
Mateos checks the turn with A♥5♥. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for A5s on the turn:
Once again, the solver recommends a mixed strategy of betting and checking with A♥5♥ , as the EV of both actions is nearly identical. Checking helps balance the weaker portion of your checking range, making it harder to be exploited on the river.
The 7♣ completes the board on the river, with 850,000 still in the pot.
Ponakovs bets 561,000 on the river with 9♥2♠. GTO Approved ✔️
Because ranges are so wide in heads-up play, there are river spots where you need to include bluffs like 92o. When the solver chooses a betting spot, it balances the range by mixing in proportional amounts of value hands and bluffs to prevent easy exploitation. In this situation, using a hand like 92o helps fold out better hands while also blocking some rivered straights.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 92o on the river:
The EV of betting vs checking with [9hs2s] is exactly the same. So, while Ponakovs’ bluff may have looked loose in-game, the best players in the world are successful because they try to consistently make the highest EV decisions in every spot. It’s just unfortunate for him that this time his opponent didn’t have a folding hand.
Mateos raises all-in for an extra 2,297,339. GTO Approved ✔️
All trips are value-jamming on the river against this bet.
The EV of jamming A5s all-in far exceeds that of the other river options.
Ponakovs folds. GTO Approved ✔️
An easy fold on the river vs the all-in, there’s no need to even check the EV comparison for this decision!
Conclusion
Ponakovs is known for his unpredictable style, occasionally straying from GTO to throw off opponents. Although his sub-optimal flop donk bet did not succeed this time against trips, he demonstrated his skill with the optimal river bluff.
Mateos showed his solid GTO fundamentals in this hand. While he had relatively straightforward decisions with flopped trips, his ability to extract maximum value from 9-high in the hand highlights why he continues to dominate the high roller circuit.
Watch the full hand here!
