One of the World’s Best Faces a Tricky River Decision at the Final Table of a $10K Online Tournament
Table Of Contents
Adrian Mateos is one of the best poker tournament players in the world. A regular in the world of high-stakes tournaments, live and online, Mateos is known for his fearless yet analytical approach to the game; he rarely puts a foot wrong at the table. Mateos navigated his way to the final table of a $10,300 GGMillion$ online at GGPoker, where he found himself in an interesting hand against Estonian chess guru Ottomar Ladva.
PokerNews ambassador Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson has delved deep into the hand in question, using the powerful GTO Wizard tool to see if Mateos and Ladva's play was or was not GTO-approved. First, let's set the scene.
Eight players remain at the final table, blinds are 25,000/50,000 with a 6,000 running ante. Each of the eight players has locked in $63,204 for their efforts, with the eventual champion taking home $346,903.
| Rank | Prize |
|---|---|
| 1st | $346,903 |
| 2nd | $272,001 |
| 3rd | $213,272 |
| 4th | $167,223 |
| 5th | $131,117 |
| 6th | $102,806 |
| 7th | $80,609 |
| 8th | $63,204 |
In the hand in question, Mateos is seated in the hijack with almost 53 big blinds, the third-largest stack at the table. Ladva is sat in the big blind with 82.7 big blinds, only a handful of big blinds away from the chip leader.
| Table Position | Player | Chip Counts | Big Blinds |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTG | G Pinarello | 1,792,651 | 35.9bb |
| UTG+1 | Kelvin Kerber | 1,262,762 | 25.3bb |
| LJ | Buzzcut | 1,120,720 | 22.4bb |
| HJ | Adrian Mateos | 2,646,252 | 52.9bb |
| CO | RealOA | 4,456,209 | 89.1bb |
| BTN | K!ngOfM!A | 1,193,992 | 23.9bb |
| SB | Vladimir Minko | 2,129,066 | 42.6bb |
| BB | Ottomar Ladva | 4,185,348 | 82.7bb |
Pre-flop Action
Adrian Mateos opened to 110,000 from the hijack (HJ) holding A♦2♦. Ottomar Ladva defended from the Big Blind (BB) with J♠6♠.
Post-Flop
Flop (293,000 Pot): J♦9♠3♠
Action: Ladva checked. Mateos bet 150,000. Ladva called.
Turn (593,000 Pot): 9♦
Action: Ladva donk-bets 148,250. Mateos calls.
River (889,500 Pot): J♥
Action: Ladva bet 444,750. Mateos tank called. Ladva won a 1,779,000 pot with a full house.
A tricky river decision for Adrian Mateos, showing that even for the best players in the world, it never comes easy. Let’s break down this hand using the GTO Wizard solver to see whether both players played it correctly according to theory.
Pre-flop Analysis
Adrian Mateos opened to 110,000 from the HJ holding A♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
Ottomar Ladva defended from the BB with J♠6♠. GTO Approved ✔️
Both players made standard preflop plays. Now let’s analyse their postflop decisions.
Post-flop Analysis
Flop (293,000 Pot): J♦9♠3♠
Ladva checked the flop. GTO Approved ✔️
The BB has zero donk-bets on this particular flop.
Mateos bet 150,000 on the flop. GTO Approved ✔️
Many hands in the HJ’s range miss this flop, so it makes sense to check frequently on this board. Larger bet sizes are also used, as the hands that are betting for value need additional protection against the BB’s range on this specific texture.
Recommended Strategy and EV for A2s on the flop:
The solver recommends mixing between checking and betting, as the EV of each play is nearly identical. However, it’s worth noting that A2s is the highest frequency betting hand on this flop of all the bluffing candidates.
Ladva called the 150,000 flop bet. GTO Approved ✔️
Standard call on the flop with J6s.
Turn (593,000 Pot): 9♦
Ladva donk-bet 148,250 with J♠6♠. GTO Approved ✔️
BB has significantly more combinations of nines in their range compared to HJ, making this one of the best possible turn cards for them.
Ladva opts for the donk bet in-game, a play approved by the GTO Wizard solver.
Recommended Strategy and EV for J6s on the turn:
As you can see, a small amount of checking is recommended, and J♠6♠ can actually mix between betting and checking. Overall, however, betting is used much more frequently with the BB range on this turn.
Mateos calls the 148,250 bet on the turn with A♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
The solver does not recommend folding much against this turn bet, with folds coming mostly from weak Ace and King high hands that have no draws.
Flush draws in the HJ’s range:
Above, you can see that none of the flush draws in the HJ’s range choose to fold against this small turn bet.
Recommended Strategy and EV for A2s on the turn:
Interestingly, A♦2♦ can mix between raising and calling, as it helps balance the small percentage of value raises with some bluffs.
River (889,500 Pot): J♥
Ladva bets 444,750 on the river with J♠6♠. GTO Approved ✔️
The solver’s recommended strategy for the BB on the river:
Recommended Bet Sizes and EV for J6s on the river:
Above, you can see that the solver’s recommended bet size is exactly 50%, which Ladva used in-game. The EV differences for J♠6♠ across the various sizes show that the 50% size provides the highest overall EV. It is impressive to see Ladva not only extract maximum value from one of the best players in the world, but also play the hand nearly perfectly according to the GTO Wizard solver.
Mateos called the 444,750 bet on the river with A♦2♦. GTO Approved ✔️
The solver’s recommended strategy for the HJ on the river vs the 50% bet:
Recommended Strategy and EV for A2s on the river:
Although Mateos was ultimately wrong to call with A♦2♦ in-game, the call is correct in theory. Let’s break down why this is the case.
All the ‘No Made Hands’ in the BB’s betting range:
Above, you can see all the bluffs in the BB’s range. A2s beats every single one of these bluff combos, and it does not block many of them either.
In-game, Mateos had to decide whether he believed his opponents had enough of these bluffs in their range to justify calling with A♦2♦.
Ultimately, he concluded that they did and chose to call. While this call was technically wrong in this hand, since his opponent had a full house; it is profitable in the long run against a capable opponent, as the EV of calling is higher than folding in this spot. This is what the best in the world try to focus on overall when making decisions like this.
You can check out my full GTO Wizard analysis via this link while fast-forwarding to 39:40 on this YouTube video will enable you to watch the hand go down in real-time.
