This Hand Shows Exactly Why You Shouldn’t Call Weak Hands Pre-Flop vs 3-Bets
There was an interesting spot on Day 1 of the $25,000 WPT Global Slam at Triton Poker Jeju II last fall, when Danilo Velasevic put Konstantin Voronin to the test on street after street. Voronin had overplayed his hand preflop and, once committed, simply could not find an exit, a decision that ultimately cost him his tournament life.
Velasevic scooped in a big one, Voronin headed back to the rebuy desk, but the hand is certainly a fascinating one to study. So, what does GTO Wizard make of the spot, and what does it tell us about how to respond when an opponent shows apparent preflop strength? Let's find out.
The Hand
Stack Sizes and Positions
Konstantin Voronin (UTG): 163K (81.5bb)
Frederic Delval (HJ): 188K (94bb)
Danilo Velasevic (CO): 327K (163bb)
Hand Liu (BTN): 11K (5.5bb)
Klemens Roiter (SB): 272K (136bb)
Viacheslav Goryachev (BB): 273K (136.5bb)
Voronin opens to 4,500 from UTG while holding J♦10♥. Velasevic 3-bets to 15,000 in the cutoff with A♠10♣. Voronin calls.
The flop comes 10♦5♦3♥. Voronin checks, while Velasevic bets 18,000. Voronin makes the call.
The 7♠ arrives on the turn. Voronin checks, Velasevic bets 52,000. Vorinin calls.
The 3♦ river card leads to action. Voronin donk-bets 20,500 and Velasevic raises all-in for an additional 58,000. Voronin calls. Velasevic shows A♠10♣ and takes the pot, while Voronin’s J♦10♥ is eliminated from the tournament.
Event Information:
- Event: Triton Jeju $25K WPT Global Slam Day 1
- Players Left: 104/110
- Blind Levels: 1K/2K/2K
Watch the full hand on the Triton Poker YouTube Channel here:
Preflop Analysis
Voronin opens to 4,500 from UTG holding J♦10♥. GTO Approved.
JTo sits at the bottom of the offsuit combos that open, and even then it’s still heavily mixed with folds.
Velasevic 3-bets to 15,000 with A♠10♣. GTO Approved.
ATo is also at the bottom of the offsuit hands that 3-bet, and it mixes between raising and folding.
Voronin calls the 3-bet. GTO Disapproved.
JTo is a pure fold vs Velasevic's 3-bet. It’s simply too dominated by Velasevic's 3-betting range and lacks the post-flop playability that suited connectors like 65s can offer, especially when playing out of position.
Calling here against the 3-bet is a -EV play.
Since Voronin made the biggest EV mistake preflop, I’ve nodelocked JTo into his post-flop range so we can analyse how both players navigated the hand using the GTO Wizard solver.
Postflop Analysis
Flop (35k pot): 10♦5♦3♥
Voronin checks the flop with J♦10♥. GTO Approved.
There is zero donk-betting on this board from the Voronin in a 3-bet pot vs. Velasevic.
Velasevic bets 18,000 on the flop with A♠T♣. GTO Approved.
A♠10♣ mostly prefers the 50% pot bet on the flop.
Recommended Strategy and EV for ATo on the flop:
The solver recommends a 73% bet frequency here. Betting with all the ATo combos outperforms checking in terms of EV.
Voronin calls the 18,000 bet. GTO Approved.
JTo pure calling vs the bet on the flop.
Turn Analysis
Turn(71k pot): 7♠
Voronin checks the turn with J♦10♥. GTO Approved.
Interestingly, there are some donk bets in Voronin's range because the 7♠ completes certain straights that are not in Velasevic's range.
Recommended Strategy and EV for JTo on the turn:
There is significant donk-betting from JTo combos, and J♦10♥ actually has a higher EV when betting, though it also mixes in some checks.
Velasevic bets 52,000 on the turn with A♠10♣. GTO Approved.
Velasevic makes a standard turn bet, using the size recommended by the solver to build the pot geometrically for a river all-in. ATo is mostly betting, but it also mixes in some low-frequency checks.
What is a geometric bet size?
A geometric bet size is one where you bet a consistent percentage of the pot on each street so that stacks end up effectively going all-in on the river. This approach is optimal when your range is perfectly polarized, as it maximizes minimum defense frequency (MDF) while ensuring that the full stacks are committed by the river.
Voronin calls the 52,000 bet. GTO Approved.
No top pairs fold to this size turn bet, so a standard call with J♦10♥.
River Analysis
River (175k pot): 3♦
Voronin donk-bets 20,500 the river with J♦10♥. GTO Disapproved.
Although there were some donk bets on the turn, zero donk bets are recommended on this river because the flush completes and the equity does not favor the LJ’s range on this card. Checking is the highest EV decision on this river for all JTo combos.
Velasevic raises Voronin all-in for an extra 58,000 with A♠10♣. GTO Approved.
Many players might be intimidated by the donk bet and the completed flush, but not Velasevic. In-game, he found the correct jam, which the solver confirms is GTO.
Recommended Strategy and EV for ATo on the river vs. bet:
Voronin makes the call with J♦10♥. GTO Disapproved.
Unfortunately for Voronin, JTo is a pure fold vs an all-in here.
Recommended Strategy and EV for JTo on the river vs. all-in:
Folding JTo on the river loses significantly less EV than calling.
Conclusion
Danilo Velasevic showed why he is one of the best players in the world by playing this hand perfectly, according to the solver, even when his opponent was not playing optimally. This demonstrates that top players know how to adapt and execute the best strategy against all types of opponents.
This hand also highlights why you shouldn’t just use a solver blindly. Using the post-flop AI feature in GTO Wizard, like nodelocking certain parts of the game tree to make them applicable to real-life examples, just like this hand, is one of the best ways to improve your poker game.
If you want to try running your own hands like this, use the link below to download and use GTO Wizard for free today.
