How Significant is ICM During Late Registration?
Late registration has long been a hot topic in tournament poker, and thanks to GTO Wizard’s new postflop ICM feature, players now have a clearer picture of how significant Independent Chip Model (ICM) pressure is when entering the field late.
Many already know that max late registering provides an instant equity boost, by skipping the early levels, players automatically outlast a chunk of the field without playing a hand. That $100 buy-in might now be worth $110 in equity, putting some players in profit before the first card is dealt. Stack-to-pot ratios are also shallower, which makes decisions easier.
But while many grinders jump in late and still play a Chip EV strategy, the new data shows that ICM is already a meaningful factor once half the field has been eliminated.
Bubble Factors Tell the Story
One of the best ways to measure ICM pressure is through the Bubble Factor. Although the term suggests it only applies at the money bubble, ICM actually affects tournament strategy throughout, except heads-up.
- At the start of a 1,000-runner MTT, the average bubble factor is 1.07, only slightly above Chip EV (1).
- At the money bubble, it rises to 1.74, where players need 13.5% extra equity to call an all-in.
- Around late registration, with half the field gone, the bubble factor climbs to 1.15, a small increase on paper but one that significantly shifts strategy, especially for defending players.
How Strategy Changes at Late Reg
Preflop, the under-the-gun opening ranges don’t change dramatically, but big blind defense is much tighter. At 20bb stacks, late-reg players fold almost twice as often compared to Chip EV scenarios. Postflop, bet sizing trends shrink, with solvers preferring smaller bets and lower-variance lines. Covering players are more aggressive, while shorter stacks must be cautious when defending.
The adjustments aren’t massive, but they compound over time. Max late registrants who ignore ICM and play Chip EV strategies are leaving EV on the table.
Why It Matters
With more than half the field gone by the time late reg closes, ICM is already shaping play well before the bubble. Players who adapt by defending less, using high card blockers, betting smaller, and playing tighter against aggression will have an edge over those who don’t.
As author Barry Carter puts it:
“While the effects are relatively small, it’s important to be aware of these strategic shifts if you are going to get into the habit of max late registering tournaments, because the differences will compound over time.”
Read the full breakdown and see the solver outputs in the original article on GTO Wizard.
