How to Exploit Non-GTO Players With GTO Wizard
Table Of Contents
There is a common misconception that you do not need to study Game Theory Optimal (GTO) strategies if you frequent low-to-mid-stakes games. While it is true that many players at these limits stray far away from equilibrium, using a solver like GTO Wizard can still provide significant benefits.
Knowing about poker's fundamental factors and strategic concepts, and being able to identify what your opponents are doing wrong, enables you to devise a strategy to capitalize on those errors.
GTO Wizard recently published the first of two parts of a detailed blog article, which discusses common preflop mistakes and bet sizing tips that you can use when you know your opponent is not playing a GTO strategy.
Preflop Mistakes
One of the most common mistakes players make, particularly those in a low-to-mid-stakes setting, is to have a three-betting range that is too tight. These players understand that they want to three-bet with their strongest hands preflop because they want to start building a larger pot. However, they struggle to three-bet with weaker hands from this unique position.
If you come up against an opponent who seems blissfully unaware of how aggressive they should be from the big blind, you can take advantage before any community cards are dealt.
- Consider opening slightly wider – A passive opponent means you'll get to see the flop more often than you should, meaning you get to realize more equity on average. Players who are passive preflop tend to continue that passivity on later streets, resulting in more and cheaper turns and rivers.
- Fold More to a Tight Three-Bet Range—An opponent whose three-bet range from the big blind is too tight can be taken advantage of by folding more than you theoretically should. Marginal hands are the first cards to drop, followed by some slightly winning hands, depending on how tight your opponent is.
- Four-Bet Less Against a Tight Big Blind – Make four-bets with a tight, nutted range against a tight big blind. There is no point bluffing into a range that only consists of value hands, is there?
Another common mistake is continuing too passively when playing out of position and facing a three-bet, a common scenario. In a 100 big blind, six-handed cash game, if an opponent opens to 2.5 big blinds from the cutoff, and you three-bet to 7.5 big blinds from the button, the cutoff should four-bet approximately 40% of their continuing range, according to GTO Wizard's calculations. You can bet your bottom dollar that most low-to-mid-stakes opponents you face will not be four-betting this often.
Having a positional disadvantage means you also have an informational disadvantage because the player in position gets to observe the action their opponent is taking, which can reveal more information about the strength of their range or hand. As a direct result, the out-of-position player realizes considerably less equity because they don't have the final word in the hand. Both of these factors become more problematic with deeper stacks because a deeper stack depth often results in playing more streets.
The most logical response is for the out-of-position player to four-bet to try to take down the hand preflop or to reduce the postflop stack-to-pot ratio (SPR).
An out-of-position player's four-betting range can be broken down into three main categories. One is the absolute best hands, like pairs of jacks or better, and ace-king. Another is hands that don't perform particularly well because they're difficult to play out of position. Think along the lines of strong Broadways. Lastly, hands that fold out better, such as suited ace-five or king-ten. These hands have decent playability of called, but you don't mind folding them to a shove.
If your opponent under-bluffs in these spots, you should increase your three-betting aggression with a wider and more linear range. This is because a lack of four-bets from your opponent will see you over-realize equity. Conversely, you should heavily over-fold to four-bets because your opponent's overly tight range will only consist of premium hands, so you don't need to defend as wide against.
Sizing Tells
How often do you see an opponent select a bet size based on how they value their hand? You see them bet smaller with weaker hands and increase their sizing when they have a strong hand. An opponent who plays their hand almost face-up like this is easy to exploit.
By studying with GTO Wizard and using the nodelocking feature, you can devise a strategy to win more money and lose less. GTO Wizard's blog post provides a detailed example of this in action, but we'll cover the basics here at PokerNews.
The cutoff opens, we defend in the big blind, and the flop falls 10♣8♣4♦. We check-called a two-thirds continuation bet, leading to the 2♣ turn. If our assumption is correct that the cutoff uses a larger size for their flushes and a smaller size for the rest of their range, how you act differs dramatically.
For example, without nodelocking, GTO Wizard suggests you call with 58.5% of your range, raise with 12.1% of your range, and fold 29.4% of your range to a standard 40% pot bet. However, if you nodelock your opponents' range so that a 40% pot bet doesn't contain flushes, GTO Wizard suggests calling 65.8%, raising 31.1%, and only folding 3.1% of your range!
Similarly, facing a 100% pot-sized bet without nodelocking to your opponent's strategy, GTO Wizard states you call 42.1%, raise 6.6% and fold 51.3%. Nodelocking this 100% bet so that it only happens when the cutoff has a flush, GTO Wizard is folding 94.5% of the time, only called 2.4% of the time (with a king-high flush and sets), and raising a mere 3% of the time (only every with an ace-high flush and ace-high flush draw).
Considering the above, if you face an opponent who chooses bet sizes like this, you should heavily over-fold once flushes are possible. Conversely, when they bet smaller, consider raising thinner for value and bluffing more often because they are likely not as strong.
Studying hand ranges and GTO fundamentals enables you to exploit your opponents when they deviate from GTO strategy. Whenever you're facing a bet, ask yourself what the GTO baseline is, how your opponent is deviating from that line, and what the most +EV way is to respond. Good luck!
