Baseball Betting Tips: How to Bet on the MLB (and Win)
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Spring is in the air, and baseball fans know what that means. The MLB season is about to begin, and those hoping to cash in are already warming up their wagering hands.
But how can you ensure you get the most bang for your baseball buck?
We’re here to help with this collection of MLB betting tips to help you make informed, intelligent, and profitable wagers throughout the season.
Betting Against the Crowd is Key
If you want to make a profit on your wagers, you have to bet against the crowd. If you think about it, it makes major sense.
Recreational bettors aren’t taking the time to create a strategy. They’re plagued by intrinsic biases, meaning they go with their heart rather than looking at the bigger picture.
This is a good thing for you, because you will look at the bigger picture—and when you do, you’ll see much more potential profit on the side of the underdog.
The crowd loves favorites, and betlines reflect the fact that online sportsbooks expect bets on them no matter what. By avoiding these favorite lines, you avoid bigger risks and costly mistakes.
It makes you a better handicapper in general if you realize that sportsbooks shade their lines according to public opinion. They offer lower payouts for favorites at a higher price, and higher payouts for underdogs at a lower price.
Keeping this in mind and taking a strategy which incorporates calculated risks on underdogs, you can actually win less than half of the time on your bets but still finish out the season with a profit.
Of course, losing is a risk you must be willing to take. However, winning on these bets is so much more valuable than winning on a favorites bet.
You risk much less, you make more money, and you pad your bankroll to be able to make more of these types of bets in the future.
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Bet Smart on Divisional Play
One of the most important baseball betting tips is to focus on teams and games within the division.
Consider the fact that these teams play each other 19 times a year, which means not only are they more familiar with each other, but you can be more familiar with them.
Study up on how they interact with each other, and you’re halfway there.
Early on in the season, you may still be able to place profitable bets on underdogs outside of divisional games.
This is true especially right at the beginning, when bookmakers and baseball players alike are still getting their bearings.
This means that bookmakers could make miscalculations when setting the lines, and you could turn a hefty profit from a single bet.
However, past a certain point, this falls out of favor.
Especially towards the end of the season, divisional underdogs are simply more motivated to win than those outside the division.
You can’t ignore this fact, so stay poised to take advantage by focusing on the right factors without wasting effort and money.
Be Comfortable with High-Volume Wagers
Any set of MLB betting tips would be incomplete without mentioning the need for high-volume betting.
Don’t take this the wrong way—you still need to be informed, disciplined, and have a good strategy. But baseball is a rare unicorn in the sports world, and you should treat it as such.
Potential profits are much higher in the MLB, partly because of the sheer number of games played in a regular season.
If you’re using a good strategy with a consistent ROI, betting high-volume means you get to take advantage of these games to increase your overall profits without risking too much.
Focus on the Betlines
One of the most important baseball betting tips to remember is to pay attention to what the bookmakers are doing.
Focus on the betlines in order to anticipate the outcome of the game, and pay special attention to reverse line movement.
Reverse line movement is when the line moves in the opposite direction to the majority of the betting percentages.
If one team is a shoe-in, why would sportsbooks change the lines? They’ve gotten intelligence through sharp bettor action or other tips which indicate that the outcome may not be as predictable as you think.
By following reverse line movement, you can more accurately predict what the bookmaker thinks will happen and make your bets accordingly.
This isn’t the only aspect to factor in, but it can help you satisfy hunches, confirm fears, and make moves in the right direction.
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Pay Attention to Gameday Factors
Gameday factors like wind and weather can impact the game more than you might think. For example, the direction of the wind and the speed at which it’s blowing can make a crucial difference.
If a breeze is blowing out, it can make for more runs. If it’s blowing in, this can mean more outs.
Air pressure, temperature, and rain can make a difference as well, so be sure to look up the weather before you place your bets.
Another gameday factor to study closely is who is serving as the umpire. While this may not make or break your betting strategy, keep in mind that all umpires are different. Some favor the crowd, while others tend not to be bothered by what the audience feels.
Furthermore, each umpire has a different range regarding the acceptable strike zone. A wider zone tends to benefit the underdog, while a tighter zone tends to benefit the favored team.
If you’re betting the underdog, a more lenient ump may tip the scales in your favor.
Make Bookmakers Work for You
Remember that not all bookmakers are created equal. Luckily, it doesn’t matter if you’re betting in a Vegas resort or an online sportsbook —you’ve got a ton of options.
Shopping around for the best odds and most profitable betlines is a surefire way to get the most bang for your betting buck.
Keeping this in mind it’s always a good idea to open accounts at multiple sportsbooks. That way, you aren’t limited in your betting options and you can easily change bookmakers if you see your other site has more profitable odds.
Additionally, be sure to open at least one account with a reduced-juice sportsbook. These are books which offer reduced odds of -105 or -107, instead of the standard -110.
Reduced juice betting is a great tool to have in your arsenal, as it can help you increase the amount of money you win without having to increase the amount you bet.
Manage Your Bankroll the Smart Way
If you really want to get the most out of these MLB betting tips, a smart bankroll management strategy is imperative. It’s always a good idea to bet conservatively, but this means different things for different people.
Many bettors like to wager 1%, while some bet as much as 5% of their bankroll on a single selection.
What you choose is up to you, but it’s good to start slow and work your way up the ladder once you’ve found your footing and feel more confident with your strategy.
Remember, placing smaller bets will protect you from larger losses.
Another way to protect your bankroll is by placing the right kinds of bets—this means avoiding parlay bets and teaser bets.
It’s incredibly difficult to keep track of all the factors which go into making a smart wager on just one game or aspect thereof.
It’s just too easy to drop the ball when betting on multiple selections at once, so stick with simpler moneyline bets at the beginning.
The season is kicking off soon, and bettors the world over are ready to cash in on their favorite sport. If you’re ready to get started, there’s no better time than now.
After all, you’re already armed with the info you need to become a professional. Following these MLB betting tips will help take your wagering strategy from zero to hero in no time flat.
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