button in SafariGTO Wizard: Did Phil Ivey Punt With Pocket Aces?
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The legendary Phil Ivey played an interesting hand in a high roller tournament that might seem like a "punt" on the surface.
But was the hand, which occurred during a $200,000 No-Limit Hold'em Triton Invitational at Triton Jeju, actually GTO Wizard approved? Let's take a deep dive into the hand that sent the Poker Hall of Famer to the rails.
First off, let's go over the hand basics, starting with the hands early in the tournament at the 500/1,000 level. Ivey, with 222,000 chips, had A♥A♣ on the button. Gytis Lazauninkas had 9♥9♠ from UTG+2 and raised to 2,500 preflop.
Ivey then went for a three-bet to 10,000, and Lazauninkas made the call. The flop came out 9♦4♣2♥, bad news for the 11-time World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelet winner. Action checked to the button, who fired out a continuation bet of 15,000 with the top over pair. That bet received a call before the 3♦ hit on the turn, giving Ivey four extra outs with the gutter ball draw.
Lazauninkas, who had his opponent covered, checked again, setting the trap for a second time. Ivey obliged with a bet of 45,000. There would be no call this time around, as Lazauninkas put Ivey all in for 152,000 extra. The poker legend went into the tank before deciding to call, needing to hit one of six outs. He wouldn't hit any of those outs as the 3♣ paired the board on the river, giving Lazauninkas a full house and Ivey a visit to the rail. Now, let's go find out of this hand is GTO Wizard approved.
Analyzing the Hand
Preflop Analysis:
Lazauninkas opens to 2.5K from UTG+2 with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
All pocket pairs open to 2.5bb from UTG+2, making 99 a standard raise.
Phil Ivey three-bets A♥A♣ on the button to 10,000. GTO Approved.
Pocket aces is a pure three-bet, while interestingly, kings mixes in some calls when playing 222 big blinds effective.
Lazauninkas calls the three-bet with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
All pocket pairs continue vs the three-bet, with nines mostly calling while mixing in some low-frequency four-bets.
Postflop Analysis:
Flop (22,500 Pot): 9♦4♣2♥
Lazauninkas checks with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
The solver recommends zero donk-betting on this flop, with the BTN holding both the EV and positional advantage.
Ivey continuation-bets 15,000 with A♥A♣. GTO Approved.
Ivey chooses the exact sizing recommended by the solver, with AA being close to a pure c-bet on this flop.
Lazauninkas makes the call with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
The solver mostly continues by calling here, with only 12.4% of the range raising. With the button holding the EV and positional advantage, strong hands such as sets can comfortably call and still get all the money in by the river, while keeping the button’s bluffs in the pot.
Calling generates the highest EV overall, although the solver does mix in some low-frequency raises.
Turn (52,500 Pot): 3♦
Lazauninkas checks with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
Although the turn is more favourable for UTG+2, the solver still recommends zero donk-betting. Let’s compare both players’ ranges to understand why.
UTG+2 vs BTN Turn Range Comparison:
Although UTG+2 now holds the EV and equity advantage, the BTN still has around twice as many ‘Best Hands’, largely due to AA and KK, which UTG+2 doesn’t have in its range.
Ivey bets 45,000 with A♥A♣. GTO Approved.
All combos of AA can bet this turn using the exact sizing Ivey chose in game. KK and QQ mix in some checks, while JJ and TT are the overpairs that prefer checking most often.
Lazauninkas raises all-in for 152,000 extra with 9♥9♣. GTO Approved.
The solver only jams 9.1% of its range vs this bet, with 99 mixing between calling and going all-in. Lazauninkas’ shove is therefore perfectly fine.
9♥9♣ prefers calling more often than the other 99 combos, with calling also generating the highest EV. However, the solver still mixes in some low-frequency all-ins, making Lazauninkas’ shove GTO approved.
Ivey calls with A♥A♣. GTO Approved.
AA is a pure call vs the all-in, with KK and QQ also mostly calling. JJ and TT are the overpairs that begin folding, which explains why these hands prefer checking the turn more often.
You can see how much more EV calling with A♥A♣ generates compared to folding. However, this is against a balanced turn jamming range. Let’s nodelock UTG+2 to use a more unbalanced range and see whether AA still remains a profitable call.
Nodelocked UTG+2 Turn Range
I reduced UTG+2’s all-in frequency from 9% to just 5%, creating a more value-heavy and underbluffed jamming range.
BTN Strategy vs Nodelocked Range
AA is still a highly profitable call against this tighter range, with KK also remaining a pure call. QQ, however, now starts folding at a high frequency.
Key Takeaways
- Preflop: Both players played perfectly, with Lazauninkas opening 99 and Ivey 3-betting AA, before Lazauninkas called.
- Flop: Ivey correctly c-bet AA using the optimal 67% sizing, while Lazauninkas slow-played his top set by calling which was also optimal.
- Turn: Ivey’s 85% bet with AA was GTO approved, while 99 correctly went all-in.
- Ivey’s Call: Despite being over 200bb deep, AA is a pure call vs the turn shove and generates significantly more EV than folding.
- Nodelocking: Even after reducing Lazauninkas’ jamming range from 9% to 5%, AA remains a highly profitable call.
- Overall: Ivey may have lost his entire stack with AA and been the first player eliminated from the tournament, but it was far from a punt. According to the solver, he played the hand perfectly.
Watch the full hand at the video below (38:03 mark).
