How Close to GTO Does Spraggy Actually Play?
Table Of Contents
Every decision you make at a final table is crucial. But with a $5,550 top prize on the line, and just nine players left in the $530 Bounty Builder on PokerStars, Benjamin "Spraggy" Spragg faces a crucial decision.
Having flopped top pair with A♥10♥, he seemed to be in a position of strength. However, a tricky board and a river bet from ".COM??LOL" forced the PokerStars Pro into a painful fold.
Was this a disciplined survival play driven by ICM, or did he leave too much value on the table? Let’s look at the numbers and see if the solver agrees with his decision to lay it down.
The Hand
First, let's take a lookat the Stack Sizes and Positions:
- Prebz (UTG): 574,447 (82.1bb) Bounty: $792.97
- Spraggy (UTG+1): 398,583 (56.9bb) Bounty: $843.75
- Shadissimo (UTG+2): 487,655 (69.7bb) Bounty: $718.75
- Yurasov1990 (LJ): 453,998 (64.9bb) Bounty: $750
- Wisopekeno (HJ): 65,755 (9.4bb) Bounty: $125
- Juswhackit (CO): 166,798 (23.8bb) Bounty: $671.88
- Ug0tROBbed (BTN): 171,316 (24.5bb) Bounty: $375
- .COM??LOL (SB): 263,157 (37.6bb) Bounty: $187.50
- Edercampana (BB): 135,416 (19.3bb) Bounty: $375
Spraggy opens to 15,400 from UTG+1 holding A♥10♥ and .COM??LOL calls in the SB. Heads-up to a flop.
On a flop of A♦4♦3♥, ".COM??LOL" checks and Spraggy bets 10,962 into a pot of 45,675. His opponent calls.
The turn was the 5♣ and both players checked. The rive was the 9♠ and ".COM??LOL" bets 42,000 into 67,599. Spraggy opts to fold.
We’ll never know what ".COM??LOL" was holding, as their hand was not shown, but we can analyse Spraggy’s decision to see whether it aligns with the GTO Wizard solver.
Pre-flop Analysis
Spraggy's open is GTO approved, with all suited Ax hands opening from his position at the table.
Solver Suggested SB Pre-flop Range vs Open:
The SB’s flatting range in this spot is capped and condensed, largely consisting of medium-strength hands such as middle pocket pairs, suited broadways, and suited Ax. Notably, many of the A3-A6s combos are 3-bet preflop, which becomes an important detail later in the hand.
Post-Flop Analysis
On the A♦4♦3♥ flop, the solver recommends checking the entire range here out of the small blind, which aligns with how most players approach this flop from the SB.
Spraggy then bets 10,962 having flopped top pair. The solver recommends a heavy checking strategy from UTG1 in this spot.
Recommended Strategy and EV for ATs on the flop:
ATs is actually most profitable as a check in this spot, although the solver does mix in some low-frequency bets using the 25% and 67% sizes.
So why does UTG+1 have such a high checking frequency of around 70% on this flop? Let’s compare the ranges.
SB vs UTG+1 Range Comparison on this flop:
Despite holding a slight equity and EV edge, UTG+1 checks at a high frequency here because:
- The SB’s capped, condensed range realises equity extremely well on this texture
- UTG+1 lacks a clear nut advantage, despite a small equity lead
- Betting forces UTG+1 to over-bluff marginal hands
- Final table ICM heavily penalises building pots without strong hands
- Checking balances the overall checking range on this board texture and allows UTG+1 to apply pressure more efficiently on later streets
Solver Suggested SB Flop Calling Range vs 10,962 bet:
An important aspect of this range is that flopped sets of 44 and 33 are check-raising this flop at a high frequency vs this bet size, which is another important consideration for future streets.
The turn was the 5♣ and both players checked.
Solver Suggested SB Turn Range:
Once again, the solver recommends a pure check on the turn.
Spraggy then checks back, with the solver now recommending a polarised betting strategy on the turn.
What is a Polarised betting strategy?
- A strategy where you bet only your very strong hands and your bluffs, while checking all medium-strength hands.
- The goal is to maximize value with the best hands and apply pressure with bluffs, making it difficult for opponents to exploit your range.
Recommended Strategy and EV for ATs on the turn:
ATs is a pure check on this turn card. When betting, the solver prefers a 100% pot size, which sets up a geometric shove on the river.
A geometric bet size is one where you bet a consistent percentage of the pot on each street so that stacks end up effectively going all-in on the river. This approach is optimal when your range is perfectly polarized, as it maximizes minimum defense frequency (MDF) while ensuring that the full stacks are committed by the river.
On the 9♠ river, ".COM??LOL" bets 42,000. The 62% sizing used in game is not optimal, as the solver instead prefers either a 25% block bet or a 175% overbet.
Solver Suggested SB River Betting Range:
Spraggy ultimately folds to the bet. As shown below, calling with all Ax combos is profitable vs this bet size. While the board may appear intimidating, the SB holds very few two-pair combos, sets, or straights in their range.
$EV for ATs on the river:
Calling with A♥10♥ here vs this size generates $74.46 in profit, while folding results in $0. Interestingly, both a 50% raise and an all-in produce higher $EV than folding in this spot.
What I’m going to do next is nodelock the SB to include more hands betting the 62% size that was used in game, and then see how this affects the $EV of ATs.
Nodelocked 62% SB betting range:
I nodelocked the range so that the 62% bet frequency increases to 10.9%, up from just 3.3% previously. This more accurately reflects the in-game strategy used by ".COM??LOL" and allows us to evaluate a more optimal response to this sizing from Spraggy’s perspective.
Spraggy Strategy vs Nodelocked Range:
Calling with A♥10♥ now generates $86.28 in dollar EV vs this bet size and range.
Conclusion
This hand highlights the complexities of final-table play and the significant impact ICM has on overall strategy. Spraggy, one of the world’s biggest poker streamers, demonstrates strong GTO understanding throughout the hand, up until the river, where he unfortunately makes a costly fold.
If you want to study your own hands and identify potential leaks in your game, click the link below to download GTO Wizard for free today.
