Missed Flop With Small Suited Connectors: Continuation Bet or Check Behind?
DECISION POINT: In a no-limit hold'em tournament, the blinds are 1,500/3,000 when it folds around to you on the button with . With just under 100,000 to start the hand, you raise to 7,000. The small blind with just over 78,000 calls your raise and the big blind folds. On a flop the small blind checks and the action is on you.
PRO ANSWER: This flop is problematic to continuation bet after we open from the button and face a flat-call from the small blind.
Our range is extremely wide, while the small blind's range is highly condensed (few weak hands and few premium hands, mostly medium strength hands). This flop hits our opponent's range extremely well.
This situation is one of the few spots where the preflop caller has a significant range equity advantage right away on the flop.
Against tougher opponents, we should not c-bet in this spot despite having backdoor equity in the form of a spade draw.
It's still profitable to c-bet against weak competition that is calling too wide preflop, but against competent players we should check behind.
Checking back on the flop is the best play.
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