Was This a $100K Blunder? Busting w/ Kings on the WSOP High Roller Bubble
There are few worse feelings in tournament poker than bubbling. But bubbling a $50,000 WSOP High Roller with pocket kings? That’s enough to haunt even the most elite players.
That’s exactly what happened to Pavel Plesuv, who was eliminated by Brock Wilson during one of the most eye-catching hands of the tourament, and on the direct bubble, no less. With 27 players remaining and 26 set to cash, Plesuv’s exit meant a $102,395 payday slipped through his fingers.
But was it a mistake, or simply an unavoidable cooler? GTO Wizard ran the numbers, and the verdict might surprise you.
Kings vs 76s for a $5.7M Pot
The hand played out during Level 15, with blinds at 30,000/60,000 and a 60,000 ante. Wilson was chip leader with 5.8 million (97bb) and opened to 210,000 from the small blind holding 7♠6♠. Plesuv, sitting on 2.85 million (47.5bb) and sixth in chips at the time, returned from dinner break and three-bet to 650,000 with K♥K♦. After burning through three time banks, Wilson made the call.
The flop came 8♠8♣4♣ and both players checked. The 5♠ hit the turn, giving Wilson the straight. He fired 400,000. Plesuv called. The river brought the 5♦, double pairing the board. Wilson moved all in, covering Plesuv’s remaining stack. Plesuv called, saw the bad news, and was eliminated.
Pre-flop Analysis
GTO Wizard analysis shows that Wilson’s open with seven-six suited from the small blind is standard for a chip leader on the bubble. The solver advocates raising 50.7% of hands here, and his hand is a reasonable mix-in between raise and call.
Plesuv’s three-bet with kings? Also textbook. Even under heavy ICM pressure, the solver confirms this is the most profitable play. And despite that pressure, Wilson’s call with 76s is also GTO-approved, thanks to its board coverage and implied odds.
What is Board Coverage in poker?
Board coverage in poker refers to a player's ability to make strong hands across a wide range of possible board textures.
Post-flop Analysis
Both played the pre-flop stage of this hand great according to GTO. Now, let’s look at the post-flop decisions.
On the 8♠8♣4♣ flop, both players checked. While the solver does suggest a high frequency of donk leads from the small blind, checking with 76s remains a viable mix. Plesuv’s check-back with kings is also correct, avoiding bloating the pot on a paired board that heavily favors the small blind.
The 5♠ turn gave Wilson the straight and he can now start putting chips into the middle. He bet 400,000 (6.66bb), a slightly smaller size than the solver’s preferred geometric sizing (around 11.9bb), but still within acceptable parameters.
Plesuv’s flat call? Also solver-approved, raising with kings in this spot offers little benefit.
Could Kings Ever Fold on the River?
With the 5♦ completing the board, Wilson ripped it in for 2 million effective, and the solver agrees with his shove. 7♠6♠ is one of the best value hands in his range, and jamming gets paid by bluff-catchers like overpairs.
Plesuv, now facing an ICM-crippling decision, called off and was eliminated. Some might argue he should have found a fold. But GTO Wizard says otherwise: even under bubble pressure, kings are a pure call on this runout. Folding would be a deviation from optimal play.
Verdict: No Mistakes Were Made
It’s rare to see both players play a bubble hand flawlessly, especially when it ends in heartbreak for one of them. But according to the solver, both Wilson and Plesuv made the correct decisions every step of the way.
It’s a painful end for Plesuv, but no shame. The hand was a cooler in the truest sense and one that perfectly illustrates the high-level decision-making of elite tournament poker.
