Was RobinPoker’s River Jam Too Thin on WPT Global’s $530 Throne Bubble?
PokerNews Ambassador Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson recently found himself in an interesting bubble spot on WPT Global. Playing the $530 Thursday Throne, Robinson clashed with fellow streamer Driftinator in a hand that ended with a river shove and plenty of questions.
After losing the pot, Robinson turned to GTO Wizard to break down the action street by street and find out whether his river jam with king-queen was too thin, or solver-approved.
Hand History
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Robinson, the chip leader with 54 big blinds in the small blind, picked up K♥Q♦. Driftinator sat in the big blind with 25 big blinds.
Robinson raised to 3bb and Driftinator called. The flop fell 10♣9♦2♠, where Robinson c-bet 2.5bb and received a call. The turn brought the 3♦, leading to a 5.8bb barrel that Driftinator once again called.
The river was the K♦. Robinson jammed for 13.5bb into 23.2bb, and Driftinator called with a set of nines to scoop the pot.
Pre-Flop Analysis
Raising king-queen offsuit from the small blind with the chip lead is GTO approved, as bubble dynamics reward aggression. No player can eliminate the chip leader, while everyone else must tighten ranges to avoid busting.
Driftinator’s call with pocket nines is also backed by the solver. While many would expect nines to jam against an aggressive small blind, the solver actually prefers calling slightly more often. Both options hold identical EV, meaning both players played perfectly before the flop.
Flop Analysis
On 10♣9♦2♠, the solver prefers checking or betting pot (6.6 bb) with all KQo combos. The 2.5bb sizing is only used at a very low frequency, and while not technically a mistake, overusing it would create an exploitable leak. The strategy Robinson had in mind when playing the hand involved betting 2.5bb with KQ far too often, which is why the solver consider it a small misplay.
Before Robinson analyzed this hand, he’d use two betting sizes on this board, a small and a large bet, with the largest around 75% pot. Interestingly, the solver prefers 100% pot or even an all-in, something he's keen to incorporate into his own game. This shows why studying is important.
The all-in sizing also works very well for value hands like AT/KT, since the BB still has to call most of their Tx combos and even some 9x. It’s also effective for bluffs like KJo and Q8o, forcing folds from hands like KQ while getting called by hands like T8 and K9, which has much better equity.
Driftinator’s call with a set of nines is the correct play. There is no need to raise; the stack sizes ensure the chips can still go in later while allowing Robinson to continue bluffing.
Turn Analysis
The turn 3♦ saw Robinson fire 5.8bb, which GTO approved. King-queen makes for a strong bluffing candidate, with two overs, a gutshot, and the ability to fold out weaker hands. Robinson’s sizing was also close to the solver’s recommended geometric bet (6.1bb), which sets up a river shove.
Once again, Driftinator’s call with a set was optimal. The correct strategy is simply to let the small blind continue betting.
River Analysis
The river K♦ gave Robinson top pair, and he jammed for just under pot. The solver confirms this was the correct play.
Every king-queen offsuit combo wants to jam in this spot to maximise EV. Checking or betting small would both lose value.
Driftinator’s call with a set is also mandatory. Folding would be a major mistake.
Key Takeaways
Robinson’s shove was not too thin. Solver analysis confirmed that his pre-flop raise, turn bet, and river jam were all correct. The only misstep was the small c-bet sizing on the flop. Even so, the overall line was strong, and variance dictated the result.
This hand shows how solver work can reveal leaks in even solid lines. A 2.5bb c-bet may look fine in-game, but studying revealed that polarizing to pot or check is a stronger approach. By identifying these mistakes, players can refine their strategy and become tougher to play against in bubble scenarios.
Robinson streams WPT Global on Twitch six times a month, with the Thursday Throne being his regular flagship broadcast every Thursday from 5 p.m. UK time.
