The Green Felt Diaries: World Series of Poker Prop Bets

May 04, 2012

On Wednesday, our very own Samuel Cosby listed some prop bets from Bovada.lv for the 2012 World Series of Poker. Every year, the PokerNews Staff offers its collective predictions for the WSOP — and we will continue this tradition in the coming days, but as the author of the Pigskin Diaries, I feel it necessary to attack these lines before the sharps start moving them.

I’m only half kidding when I say that. I promise.

Maria Ho, Diana Allen, Kim Nguyen, Odette Tremblay, and Vanessa Peng all made final tables last year in open events. Ho and Nguyen both reached heads-up play, and while Darren Woods, Nguyen’s opponent, played great, he was undoubtedly hit in the head with the deck. Vanessa Selbst was the last woman to win an open event in 2008, taking down a $1,500 pot-limit Omaha event for $227,933.

Along with the aforementioned six women, countless others can legitimately ship a bracelet in an open event. Annette Obrestad (2007, WSOPE Main Event), Kathy Liebert (2004, limit hold’em shootout), and Jennifer Harman (2002, limit hold’em and 2000, no limit deuce-to-seven lowball) have already won bracelets in open events. There’s also Liv Boeree and Vanessa Rousso who have a combined $5 million in career tournament earnings, and up-and-comers like Amanda Musumeci and Jamie Kerstetter who grind the WSOP-C.

It feels like we’re due. With so many talented female players, we have to be a favorite to win this bet.

There are two important elements to this bet: (1) Ivey must play at the WSOP, and (2) he must win in Vegas, the WSOPE doesn’t count. With his recent return to the live tournament circuit, I am positive Ivey will once again grace us with his presence at the WSOP. He’s cashed three times thus far in 2012, winning the Aussie Millions $250,000 Challenge ($2,058,948), finishing 12th in the Aussie Millions Main Event ($102,947), and bubbling the final table of the PokerStars and Monte-Carlo Casino® European Poker Tour Grand Final €25,000 High Roller in brutal fashion (9th for $96,643).

He also stone bubbled the 2012 World Poker Tour L.A. Poker Classic Main Event.

More importantly, we’re getting better odds than Ivey himself can get. Ivey is insanely competitive and is obviously a great player, so he often takes lesser odds just to ensure he receives action. With 2,400 players left in the 2009 WSOP Main Event, Andy Bloch told Ivey he would lay 99:1 odds that Ivey wouldn’t win the tournament. Instead of arguing for a better price, Ivey reached into his pocket and tossed $20,000 at Bloch.

Ivey is also the most well-rounded poker player in the world — none of his eight WSOP bracelets have come in hold’em events.

At the beginning of the year, I predicted that Hellmuth would win number 12, so I have to say yes, even though getting the same price as Ivey is criminal. This should be at least 7:1.

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In 2009, there were four multibracelet winners, including Greg Mueller, Brock Parker, the 2009 Player of the Year Jeffrey Lisandro, and the aforementioned Ivey. Since 2006, only two winners of the Player of the Year award have failed to win multiple bracelets; Erick Lindgren (2008), and Ben Lamb (2011). Brian Rast won multiple bracelets in 2011.

With today’s fields, it’s really difficult to win one bracelet, let alone two in the same year. I don’t necessarily think 2.25:1 is the best price, but it’s a hell of a lot better than laying 3.5:1.

Laak cashed three times during the 2011 WSOP, reaching the final table of the $5,000 pot-limit Omaha hi/lo split event, and banking over $200,000 for his efforts during the summer. I know it wouldn’t count toward this bet, but he also won a six-handed event at the 2010 WSOPE, earning him an additional $263,494. Antonio Esfandiari only cashed once at the 2011 WSOP, and hasn’t had a six-figure score at the WSOP since 2009, where he finished 24th in the Main Event.

Laak already has a six-figure score in 2012 as well, finishing third in the PartyPoker Premier League Poker V for $175,000. As long as he doesn’t keep mucking the winning hand, we like him to win this bet. Sorry, Antonio.

Somehow, “Tim Tebow denouncing his faith (-1000000)” has more value than the two options listed above.

All Buchanan does is crush the WSOP. In 2011, he cashed five times in Vegas, totaling over $400,000, and — again, I know this doesn’t count — four times in Cannes, totaling over $500,000. In 2010, he cashed eight times in Vegas, totaling nearly $900,000. Buchanan has cashed multiple times every year since 2007. All four of these players are fantastic, but Buchanan has the best value and has become one of the most consistent players at the WSOP in recent history.

Dwan is a huge favorite here, unless Blom or Antonius bink something. Blom has never been to the WSOP, and may not be able to sustain the grind if he comes — and Antonius rarely shows his face. My question is, where is “None of them cash in any event (+2500)?

This line is based solely on last year’s field of 6,865, which was the third largest Main Event field in history. I learned last year not to bet against the WSOP — they always find a way to surprise you if you do.

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